Gammadigbé, Vigninou (2012): Co-mouvement d'activité dans l'UEMOA: une approche par les corrélations dynamiques.
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Abstract
This paper brings a new lighting on the synchronization of the business cycles in the WAEMU countries. The study applies the concept of dynamic correlation to the analysis of the activity co-movement of the union. The results show the low level of synchronization of the business cycles, which makes difficult the implementation of a common monetary policy that will be advantageous to all the countries. These results lead to policy recommendations.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
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Original Title: | Co-mouvement d'activité dans l'UEMOA: une approche par les corrélations dynamiques |
English Title: | Activity co-movement in WAEMU countries: an approach based on dynamic correlation |
Language: | French |
Keywords: | Co-mouvement d'activité, Cycle économique, Analyse spectrale, Corrélation dynamique, UEMOA |
Subjects: | E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes |
Item ID: | 42690 |
Depositing User: | Vigninou GAMMADIGBE |
Date Deposited: | 17 Nov 2012 09:58 |
Last Modified: | 01 Oct 2019 12:45 |
References: | Agbodji A.E. [2007], Intégration et échanges commerciaux intra sous régionaux: le cas de l'UEMOA, Revue africaine de l'intégration, 1(1), pp. 161-188. Brockwell, P.J., et Davis, R.A. [2002], Introduction to time series and forecasting (2nd ed.), New York: Springer Texts in Statistics. Carrère C. [2004], African regional agreements: impact on trade with or without currency unions, Journal of African Economics, 13(2), pp. 199-239. Croux C., Forni M., et Reichlin, L. [2001], A measure of comovement for economic variables: Theory and empirics, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 83(2), pp. 232-241. Diagne A. et Niang A. [2009], Co-mouvements économiques dans les pays de la zone CFA: une analyse par le modèle factoriel dynamique généralisé, Série de documents de recherche 2009/19, Consortium pour la Recherche Économique et Sociale (CRES), Université Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar. Forni M., Hallin M., Lippi M. et Reichlin L. [2004], The generalized dynamic factor model consistency and rates, Journal of Econometrics, 119, 231-255. Frankel J.A. et Rose A.K. [1998], The endogeneity of the optimum currency area criteria, Economic Journal, 108, 1009-1025. Gammadigbé V. [2012], Les cycles économiques des pays de l'UEMOA: synchrones ou déconnectés?, Munich Personal RePEc Archive, Paper No 42545, Avril 2012. Harding D. et Pagan A. [2002], Dissecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation, Journal of Monetary Economics, 49 (2), p. 365-381. Hodrick R. et Prescott E. [1980], Postwar U.S. Business cycles: An Empirical Investigation, Document de Travail 451, Carnagie-Mellon University. Houssa R. [2008], Monetary Union in West Africa and Asymmetric Shocks: A Dynamic Structural Factor Model Approach, Journal of Development Economics, 85 (1-2), PP. 319-347. Kenen R. [1969], The theory of Optimum Currency Areas: An Ecletic View, Monetary Problems of the International Economy. Chicago: Chicago University Press. Koopmans, L.H. [1995], The spectral analysis of time series, Probability and Mathematical Statistics (Vol. 22), San Diego, California: Academic Press. Madariaga N. [2010], Mesure et évolution récente de l'intégration commerciale en zone franc, Macroéconomie et Développement, Novembre 2010 / No 1, AFD. Masson P.R. et Patillo C.A. [2004], The Monetary Geography of Africa, Brookings Institution Press, Washington, D.C. McKinnon R. [1963], Optimum Currency Areas, American Economic Review , 53, 717-725. Mundell R. [1961], A Theory of Optimal Currency Areas, American Economic Review, 51. Rose A.K. [2000], One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade, Economic Policy, 15(30), pp. 1309 - 1321. Tapsoba S.J.A. [2009], Union monétaire en Afrique de l'Ouest : Quelles réponses à l'hétérogénéité des chocs ?, Études et Documents E 2009. 12, CERDI, avril 2009, 34P. |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/42690 |
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Co-mouvement d'activité dans l'UEMOA: une approche par les corrélations dynamiques. (deposited 15 Nov 2012 23:50)
- Co-mouvement d'activité dans l'UEMOA: une approche par les corrélations dynamiques. (deposited 17 Nov 2012 09:58) [Currently Displayed]