Diffusion and Spatial Equilibrium of a Social Norm: Voting Participation in the United States, 1920-2008

Coleman, Stephen (2012): Diffusion and Spatial Equilibrium of a Social Norm: Voting Participation in the United States, 1920-2008.

Abstract

Social conformity can spread social norms and behaviors through a society. This research examines such a process geographically and over time for voting, which is strongly influenced by the norm that citizens should vote. A mathematical model for the spread of voting participation under the influence of social conformity is developed based on the diffusion equation, and predictions are tested with spatial analysis of state-level voter turnout in American presidential elections from 1920 to 2008. Results show that voter turnout has converged to a stable equilibrium in its geographical distribution across the states—but it is an equilibrium that results in persistent differences at the state level. Turnout increases about one percentage point with each degree of latitude.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: social norm; voter turnout; social conformity; spatial model; equilibrium; diffusion
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C0 - General > C02 - Mathematical Methods; D - Microeconomics > D7 - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making > D72 - Political Processes: Rent-Seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior; Z - Other Special Topics > Z1 - Cultural Economics ; Economic Sociology ; Economic Anthropology > Z13 - Economic Sociology ; Economic Anthropology ; Social and Economic Stratification; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C21 - Cross-Sectional Models ; Spatial Models ; Treatment Effect Models ; Quantile Regressions

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