Munich Personal RePEc Archive

A Disaggregate Model and Second Round Effects for the CPI Inflation in Costa Rica

Leon, Jorge (2012): A Disaggregate Model and Second Round Effects for the CPI Inflation in Costa Rica.

[img]
Preview
PDF
MPRA_paper_44484.pdf

Download (3MB) | Preview

Abstract

This paper estimates a medium-term forecasting model for the headline inflation of Costa Rica, utilizing disaggregate data from the components of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The period used for the estimation is characterize by a process of reduction of inflation and stabilized around the Central Bank's inflation target. The result show that the use of disaggregate data is at least as good as the aggregate data in forecast accuracy. The disaggregate model allows to differentiate the inertia and the Second-Round effects present on the inflation.

UB_LMU-Logo
MPRA is a RePEc service hosted by
the Munich University Library in Germany.