¿Quiénes son los NiNis en México?

Arceo-Gómez, Eva Olimpia and Campos-Vázquez, Raymundo M. (2012): ¿Quiénes son los NiNis en México?

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to characterize the population between 15 and 19 years of age in Mexico which does not study and does not work (NiNi). We use the population censuses for 1990, 2000 and 2010, income and expenditure household surveys from 1992 to 2010, and labor surveys from 2005 to 2010. We find that the percentage of NiNis in the population has decreased during the period of study. However, there are stark differences by gender for the decade. With the Great Recession we observe a spike in the proportion of NiNis for males, but not for women. In the case of women, the proportion of NiNis declines steadily during the period mostly due to higher labor force participation and greater school attendance. The estimates from the three samples used are consistent. We estimate that there are 8.6 million NiNis in Mexico in 2010 (28.9 percent of the population in this age group), of which 6.55 of them are women. Finally we found that the most important correlates of idleness are education and household income in the case on men, and domestic work in the case of women.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Who are the idle youth in Mexico?
• Language: Spanish
• Keywords: Youth idleness, Mexico, unemployment
• Subjects: J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J0 - General > J08 - Labor Economics Policies; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J10 - General; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J2 - Demand and Supply of Labor > J21 - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J4 - Particular Labor Markets > J49 - Other; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J8 - Labor Standards: National and International > J82 - Labor Force Composition; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O5 - Economywide Country Studies > O54 - Latin America ; Caribbean

References

Arulampalam, W. (2001), “Is Unemployment Really Scarring? Effects of Unemployment Experiences on Wages,” Economic Journal, 111(475): F585-F606.

Arulampalam, W., P. Gregg and M. Gregory (2001), “Unemployment Scarring,” Economic Journal, 111(475): F577-F584.

Beauregard (2010, septiembre 16) [Editorial], “El fraude del sueño universitario mexicano,” El Universal, consultado el 2 de junio de 2011 en http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/editoriales/49876.html.

Becker, G. (1968), “Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach,” Journal of Political Economy, 76(2): 169-217.

Borjas, G. and J. Heckman (1980), “Does Unemployment Cause Future Unemployment? Definitions, Questions and Answers from a Continuous Time Model of Heterogeneity and State Dependence,” Economica, 47(187): 247-283.

Bueno, L. (2010, noviembre 26) [Editorial], “La generación perdida no hace literatura,” El Universal, consultado el 2 de junio de 2011 en http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/editoriales/50760.html.

Clark, A.E., Y. Georgellis and P. Sanfey (2001), “The Psychological Impact of Past Unemployment,” Economica, 68(270): 221-241.

Cruz, J. M. (2011, marzo 26), “Duarte plantea servicio militar para los ‘ninis’,” El Universal, consultado el 2 de junio de 2011 en http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/estados/79936.html.

El Universal (2009, diciembre 4), “¿Qué es un ni-ni?,” consultado el 2 de junio de 2011 en http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/644085.html.

El Universal (2010a, septiembre 13), “Juventud vive una crisis de expectativas, advierte investigador,” consultado el 2 de junio de 2011 en http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/nacion/181548.html.

El Universal (2010b, noviembre 1), “Cambiar modelo educativo rescataría a ‘ninis’,” consultado el 2 de junio de 2011 en http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/nacion/181548.html.

El Universal (2011, julio 18), “Sólo cinco estados, con programas para ‘ninis’,” consultado el 27 de julio de 2011 en http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/primera/37308.html.

Farber, H.S. (1993), “The Incidence and Costs of Job Loss: 1982-91,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: Microeconomics, 1993(1): 73-132.

Farber, H.S. (1999), “Mobility and Stability: The Dynamics of Job Change in Labor Markets,” en O. Ashenfelter y D. Card (eds.), Handbook of Labor Economics, Vol. 3, Amsterdam: Elsevier Science, pp. 2439-2483.

Fernández, R. Alessandra Fogli and Claudia Olivetti (2004). “Mothers and Sons: Preference Formation and Female Labor Force Dynamics”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 119, No. 4, November, pp. 1249-1299.

Fernández, R. (2007). “Women, Work and Culture”, Journal of the European Economic Association, Vol. 5, Is. 2-3, April-May, pp. 305-332.

Fernández, R. and Alessandra Fogli (2009). “Fertility: The Role of Culture and Family Experience”, Journal of the European Economic Association, Vol. 4, Is. 3-4, April-May, pp. 552-561.

Gregg, P. (2001), “The Impact of Youth Unemployment on Adult Unemployment in the NCDS,” Economic Journal, 111(November): F626-F653.

Gregg, P. and E. Tominey (2005), “The Wage Scar from Male Youth Unemployment,” Labour Economics, 12: 487-509.

Gregory, M. and R. Jukes (2001), “Unemployment and Subsequent Earnings: Estimating Scarring Among British Men 1984-94,” Economic Journal, 111(475): F606-F625.

Hirschi, T. and M. Gottfredson (1983), “Age and the Explanation of Crime,” American Journal of Sociology, 89(3): 552-584.

Johnson, J. L. (1983), “Sex Differentials in Unemployment Rates: A Case for No Concern,” Journal of Political Economy, 91(2): 293-303.

Kletzer, L.G. and R. W. Fairlie (2005), “The Long-Term Cost of Job Displacement for Young Adult Workers,” Industrial and Labor Relations Review, 56(4): 682-698.

Levison, D., K.S. Moe and F. M. Knaul (2001), “Youth Education and Work in Mexico,” World Development, 29(1): 167-188.

Levitt, S. (1999), “The Limited Role of Changing Age Structure in Explaining Aggregate Crime Rates,” Criminology, 37(3): 581-597.

Martínez, N. (2009, diciembre 4), “7 millones de ‘ni-nis’, bolsa de trabajo para el narco,” El Universal, consultado el 2 de junio de 2011 en http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/644098.html.

Martínez, N. (2010, octubre 23), “El Estado no dimensiona riesgo por ‘ninis’: UNAM,” El Universal, consultado el 2 de junio de 2011 en http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/nacion/181370.html.

Montaño, M. T. (2011, julio 20), “’Ninis’ por ‘decisión personal’,” El Universal, consultado el 25 de julio de 2011 en http://www.eluniversal.mx/edomex/4974.html.

Morales (2011, marzo 31), “Dudan que ejército sea una opción,” El Universal, consultado el 2 de junio de 2011 en http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/nacion/184452.html.

Mroz, T.A. and T.H. Savage (2006), “The Long-Term Effects of Youth Unemployment,” Journal of Human Resources, 41(2): 259-293.

Munasinghe, L. and B. O’Flaherty (2005), “Specific Training Sometimes Cuts Wages and Always Cuts Turnover,” Journal of Labor Economics, 23(2): 213-233.

Pantoja, S. (2011, abril 7), “Ebrard y UNAM van por rescate de ‘ninis’,” El Universal, consultado el 2 de junio de 2011 en http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/ciudad/105715.html.

Pantoja, S. and S. Bolaños (2010, octubre 31), “Estado ‘fallido’ en atención a jóvenes, alerta el Injuve-DF,” El Universal, consultado el 2 de junio de 2011 en http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/ciudad/103906.html.

Rees, A. (1986), “An Essay on Youth Joblessness,” Journal of Economic Literature, 24(2): 613-628.

Skans, O. N. (2011), “Scarring Effects of the First Labor Market Experience,” IZA Discussion Paper No. 5565.

South, S. J. and S. F. Messner (2000), “Crime and Demography: Multiple Linkages, Reciprocal Relations,” Annual Review of Sociology, 23: 83-106.

Stevens, A.H. (1997), “Persistent Effects of Job Displacement: The Importance of Multiple Job Losses,” Journal of Labor Economics, 15(1): 165-188.

Székely, M. (2011), “Jóvenes que ni estudian ni trabajan: Un riesgo para la cohesión social en América Latina," Unpublished manuscript.

Tong, F. (2010), “El impacto de la crisis económica y financiera sobre el empleo juvenil en América Latina: Medidas del mercado laboral para promover la recuperación del empleo juvenil,” Organización Internacional del Trabajo, Sector de Empleo, Documento de Trabajo No. 71.

Verick, S. (2009), “Who Is Hit Hardest During a Financial Crisis? The Vulnerability of Young Men and Women to Unemployment in an Economic Downturn,” IZA Discussion Paper Series, No. 4359.

Weller, J. (2009), Los Jóvenes y el Empleo en América Latina: Desafíos y Perspectivas ante el Nuevo Escenario Laboral, Bogotá: CEPAL y Mayor Ediciones.

World Bank (2007), World Development Report 2007: Development and the Next Generation. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank.