Cyclical relationship between exchange rates and macro-fundamentals in Central and Eastern Europe

Stavarek, Daniel (2013): Cyclical relationship between exchange rates and macro-fundamentals in Central and Eastern Europe.

Abstract

We present empirical evidence on the business cycle relationship between nominal and real effective exchange rate, real GDP, consumption, investment, export, import and general government debt for a group of ten countries from the Central and Eastern Europe. We apply cross-correlation on cyclically filtered and seasonally adjusted quarterly time series over the period 1998-2010. The results are mixed in intensity, direction and cyclicality but show generally weak correlation between exchange rates and fundamentals. Sufficiently high coefficients are found only for government debt and import. We also apply simple regressions to relate the correlation to openness and welfare of the economy. The correlation between exchange rates and macroeconomic aggregates tends to be more pronounced in less open and relatively poorer countries.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: business cycle; cross correlation; exchange rate; macroeconomic fundamental; openness; wealth
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F31 - Foreign Exchange

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