Munich Personal RePEc Archive

The arc sine law and the treasury bill futures market

Dale, Charles and Workman, Rosemarie (1980): The arc sine law and the treasury bill futures market. Published in: Financial Analysts Journal , Vol. 36, No. No. 6 (November 1980): pp. 71-74.

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According to the so-called "arc sine law," mechanical trading rules applied to price movements in financial assets will result in long periods of cumulative success, but equally long periods of cumulative failure. The long periods of success will tempt investors to apply trading rules to actual decisions. The long periods of failure make it very likely that such application will eventually blow them out of the market.

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