Nuroglu, Elif and Kunst, Robert M. (2012): The effects of exchange rate volatility on international trade flows: evidence from panel data analysis and fuzzy approach. Published in: Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci. Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics: Journal of Economics and Business , Vol. 30, No. 1 (2012): pp. 931.

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Abstract
The aim of this paper is to analyze the effects of exchange rate volatility on international trade fl ows by using two different approaches, the panel data analysis and fuzzy logic, and to compare the results. To a panel with the crosssection dimension of 91 pairs of EU15 countries and with time ranging from 1964 to 2003, an extended gravity model of trade is applied in order to determine the effects of exchange rate volatility on bilateral trade fl ows of EU15 countries. The estimated impact is clearly negative, which indicates that exchange rate volatility has a negative infl uence on bilateral trade fl ows. Then, this traditional panel approach is contrasted with an alternative investigation based on fuzzy logic. The key elements of the fuzzy approach are to set fuzzy decision rules and to assign membership functions to the fuzzy sets intuitively based on experience. Both approaches yield very similar results and fuzzy approach is recommended to be used as a complement to statistical methods.
Item Type:  MPRA Paper 

Original Title:  The effects of exchange rate volatility on international trade flows: evidence from panel data analysis and fuzzy approach 
English Title:  The effects of exchange rate volatility on international trade flows: evidence from panel data analysis and fuzzy approach 
Language:  English 
Keywords:  linguistic modeling, fuzzy relations, exchange rate volatility, bilateral trade, gravity model 
Subjects:  C  Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2  Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C23  Panel Data Models ; Spatiotemporal Models F  International Economics > F1  Trade > F14  Empirical Studies of Trade 
Item ID:  49952 
Depositing User:  Dr. Elif Nuroğlu 
Date Deposited:  26 Mar 2014 09:34 
Last Modified:  11 Oct 2019 16:32 
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URI:  https://mpra.ub.unimuenchen.de/id/eprint/49952 