Inflation and Economic Growth in Zambia: A Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) Econometric Approach

Phiri, Andrew (2013): Inflation and Economic Growth in Zambia: A Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) Econometric Approach. Published in: The Bank of Zambia (BOZ) Reader , Vol. 1, No. 8 (18 December 2012): pp. 100-104.

Abstract

This study examines threshold effects of inflation on economic growth for the Zambian economy using quarterly data collected between 1998 and 2011. This objective is tackled through the use of a threshold autoregressive (TAR) model and the conditional least squares (CLS) estimation technique. As a by-product of utilizing this estimation technique, the paper is able to identify whether there could be an optimal inflation level at which the adverse effects of inflation on economic growth are subdued, or similarly, a level of inflation at which the positive effects of inflation on economic growth are maximized. In this respect, the paper estimates an inflation threshold level of 22.5% for the observed data. These results indicate that economic growth in Zambia can be stimulated even in a moderately high inflation environment. Particularly, the causality analysis identifies the credit sector and exchange rate developments as being crucial channels towards ensuring enhanced economic performance in the Zambian economy.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Inflation; Economic Growth; Granger Causality; TAR Models; Zambia
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies

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