The relationship between budgetary expenditure and economic growth in Poland

Gurgul, Henryk and Lach, Łukasz and Mestel, Roland (2012): The relationship between budgetary expenditure and economic growth in Poland. Published in: Central European Journal of Operations Research , Vol. 20, (2012): pp. 161-182.

Abstract

This paper investigates the association between different kinds of budgetary expenditure and economic growth of Poland. The empirical analysis makes use of linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests to evaluate the applicability of Wagner’s Law and that of the contrasting Keynesian theory.We employ aggregate and disaggregate data with the sub-categories of most important budgetary expenditure, including health care and social security, education and science, national defence and public security expenditure and government administration expenditure for the period Q1 2000 to Q3 2008. This causality analysis indicates that total relation between budgetary expenditure and economic growth is consistent with Keynesian theory. The results of our computations have important policy implications. In case of Poland the health care expenditure was found to be as important for economic growth as expenditures on education and science. Furthermore, in order to stimulate economic growth, Polish government should consider reallocating some of national defence, public security and government administration expenditure to health care, social security, education and science expenditure.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: government expenditure, Linear and nonlinear causality, bootstrap techniques
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O10 - General; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity > O40 - General

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