Tüketim ve Kamu Harcamaları: VECM modeli

erdogdu, oya (2006): Tüketim ve Kamu Harcamaları: VECM modeli. Published in: İktisat,işletme ve finans No. 255 (June 2007): pp. 63-73.

Abstract

Consumption expenditure is an important component of aggregate demand. Recent theoretical and empirical studies search for possible Keynesian / Non Keynesian fiscal impacts on household consumption decisions. Besides providing insight to determinants of consumption decisions, these studies also provide guide to policy solutions to high and risky current account deficits and high and persisting inflation rate problems. This empirical study for Turkey is another attempt to search for possible Keynesian fiscal policy effects on private sector consumption decisions. Distinguishing long run and short run affects indicate that expansionary Keynesian impact of fiscal policy on private sector consumption decision is significant only if fiscal policy is sustainable

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Institution: Ankara University
• English Title: Searching for Fiscal Effects: A VECM model of Household Consumption Expenditures
• Language: Turkish
• Keywords: Consumption; Fiscal Policy; Vector Error Correction Models
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy > E21 - Consumption ; Saving ; Wealth; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models

References

Bertola, Giuseppe ve Drazen, Allan, “Trigger Points and Budget Cuts: Explaining the Effects of Fiscal Austerity” American Economic Review, March 1993 Vol. 83, p. 11–26 Bhattacharya, Rina, “Private Sector Consumption Behavior and Non –Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy” IMF Working paper, August 1999 Christiano, Lawrence ve Fitzgerald, Terry, “Understanding the Fiscal Theory of Price Level,” NBER working paper 7668, 2000 Erdogdu, Oya ve Levent Özbek, “Türkiye’de Tüketim Eğilimi ve Maliye Politikası” İktisat, İşletme ve Finans, Ekim 2005 Giavazzi, Francesco, Jappelli, Tulio ve Pagano, Marco, “Searching for Non –Linear Effects of Fiscal Policy: Evidence from Industrial and Developing Countries” NBER working paper 7470, Jan 2000 Giavazzi, Francesco ve Pagano, Marco, “Can Severe Fiscal Contraction be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries” in Oliver Blanchard and Stanley Fischer eds. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990 Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, p.75 –110 Sutherland, Alan, “Fiscal Crises and Aggregate Demand: Can High Public Debt Reverse the Effects of Fiscal Policy” Journal of Public Economics, 1997, Vol. 65, p. 147 –162