Gomez-Sorzano, Gustavo (2006): The econometrics of violence, terrorism and scenarios for peace in Colombia from 1950 to 2019.
Download (852kB) | Preview
Abstract: This paper continues a research born in 1993 as a consequence of the concern regarding the increase in Colombian violence, and especially for its escalation during the 1990’s, its objective is to create an econometric model capable of forecasting the path of terrorist murder under different policy options and helping the country in the design of a state policy drawing the lineaments for reaching the pacification of the country. In the first part I use The Beveridge and Nelson decomposition of economic time series to estimate the cyclical component of murder which is used to construct a theoretically and statistically satisfying model to account for it from 1950 to 2004. The variables that together account for eighty three percent of the variation in cyclical terrorist murder are the years of Colombia’s La Violencia period when the peasant self-defense movements appeared, the years of the so-called National Front political collusion between the two main establishment parties, the real trade balance, the size of Colombia’s military forces as a proxy for all armed forces (military, para-military, guerrilla, and drug-related) in the country, the unemployment rate, the number of students matriculated in all modalities and people displaced in the country. The forecasts for cyclical terrorist murder for 2005-2007 show the big dilemma facing the Colombian authorities: the strong reduction of displaced people from 2003 to 2004 boost the cyclical terrorist murder in the countryside, erasing the initial results by president Uribe’s administration at controlling the intensity of the Colombian civil conflict. The second part presents a first approach at constructing a theoretical near-VAR system for cyclical terrorist murder and social and economic variables in Colombia. The third section presents forecasts 2004-2007 estimated by the single equation model and the near VAR-system. Both models show a jump in terrorist murder by 2004 and 2005 implying that any future policy at diminishing the conflict should control the number of displaced people, one of the biggest problems facing Colombia today. Terrorist murder is expected to decrease again by 2006 and 2007 suggesting that the continuation of The Democratic Security Policy will be destroying the roots of the Colombian civil conflict. The final section presents 11 scenarios 2005-2010 and 18 scenarios 2006-2019. According to them peace will be attained around year 2008 and sustainable peace will be granted before year 2019.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||The econometrics of violence, terrorism and scenarios for peace in Colombia from 1950 to 2019|
|Keywords:||Colombia; cyclical terrorist murder; democratic security policy; sustainable peace|
|Subjects:||C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C51 - Model Construction and Estimation
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C30 - General
|Depositing User:||GUSTAVO GOMEZ-SORZANO|
|Date Deposited:||20. Oct 2006|
|Last Modified:||14. Feb 2013 17:39|
Bejarano, Jesús Antonio. 1997. “Inseguridad, violencia y actividad económica.” Lecturas de Economía [Medellín, Colombia] (July-December), pp. 7-24.
Bergquist, Charles W. 1992. “Violence in Colombia: The Contemporary Crisis in Historical Perspective. Latin American Silhouettes. Wilmington, DE, Scholarly Resources, Inc.
Bergquist, Charles, Ricardo Peñaranda, and Gonzalo Sánchez. 2001. “Violence in Colombia, 1990-2000: waging war and negotiating peace. Wilmington, DE, Scholarly Resources, Inc.
Box, G.E.P. and G.M. Jenkins. 1976. “Time series analysis: Forecasting and Control.” San Francisco Holden Day (revised edition).
Brauer, Jurgen, Alejandro Gómez-Sorzano, and Sankar Sethuraman. 2004. “Decomposing Violence: Political Murder in Colombia, 1946-1999.” European Journal of Political Economy Vol. 20, pp. 447-461. Online at www.sciencedirect.com
Brauer, Jurgen, Gustavo A Gómez-Sorzano. 2004. “Homicide Cycles in Colombia, 1950-2002. International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies Vol. 1- Issue 1.
Brito, Dagobert L. and Michael D. Intriligator. 1992. “Narco-Traffic and Guerrilla Warfare: A New Symbiosis.” Defense Economics Vol.3, pp. 263-274.
Bushnell, David. 1993. The Making of Modern Colombia: A Nation in Spite of Itself. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.
Campbell, J.Y., P, Perron., 1991. “Pitfalls and opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots,” in O.J. Blanchard and S. Fisher (eds.), NBER Macroeconomics Annual, The MIT Press, 141-201.
Cárdenas, Mauricio. 1991.“Coffee exports, endogenous state policy and the business cycle”, Ph.D. dissertation, Economics. University of California, Berkeley, CA.
Cuddington, John T and Urzúa, Carlos M. 1989. “Trends and cycles in Colombia’s real GDP and fiscal deficit”. Journal of Development Economics Vol.30, pp.325-343.
Dinar, Ariel and Andrew Keck. 1997. “Private Irrigation Investment in Colombia: Effects of Violence, Macroeconomic Policy, and Environmental Conditions.“ Agricultural Economics Vol.16 No.1, pp. 1-15.
Giraldo, Javier. 1996. Colombia: The Genocidal Democracy. Monroe, ME: Common Courage Press, 1996.
Guerrero, Rodrigo. 1998. “Epidemiology of Violence in the Americas: The Case of Colombia,” pp. 95-100 in Shahid Jared Burki, Sri-Ram Aiyer, and Rudolf Homes (eds). Proceedings. Annual World Bank Conference on Development in Latin America and the Caribbean, 1996: Poverty and Inequality (Bogotá, Colombia). Washington, DC: The World Bank.
Gómez-Sorzano, Gustavo A. 2005. “A model of cyclical terrorist murder in Colombia, 1950-2004. Forecasts 2005- 2019.” Unpublished paper, presented at the 14th World Congress of Criminology, Jerry Lee Center of Criminology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, August.
_______________________. 2006. “Decomposing violence: terrorist murder in the twentieth century in the U.S.” Unpublished paper, submitted to the Stockholm Criminology Symposium, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden, June.
Jimeno, Myriam. 2001. “Violence and Social Life in Colombia. ” Critique of Anthropology Vol. 21 No.3, pp. 221-246.
Levitt, Steven and Rubio Mauricio. 2000. “Understanding Crime in Colombia and What Can Be Done About It.” Working Papers Series, Fedesarrollo (Bogotá, Colombia) No. 20.
Londoño, Juan Luis. 1998.“Violence, Psyche, and Social Capital,” pp. 71-82 in Shahid Jared Burki, Sri-Ram Aiyer, and Rudolf Hommes (eds). Proceedings. Annual World Bank Conference on Development in Latin America and the Caribbean, 1996: Poverty and Inequality (Bogotá, Colombia). Washington, DC: The World Bank.
Londoño, Juan Luis. 1990. “Income Distribution during the Structural Transformation: Colombia 1938-1988.” PhD thesis. Economics, Harvard University.
Nacla.2001. “Report on the Americas.” Vol 35, No.1, pp. 24-27.
Richani, Nazih. 1997. “The Political Economy of violence: The War-System in Colombia.” Journal of Interamerican Studies and World Affairs Vol. 39, No.2, pp. 37-81.
Restrepo, Jorge and Spagat, Michael. 2004. “The Colombian Conflict: Uribe’s First 17 Months.” Unpublished document.
Rubio, Mauricio. 1997. “Perverse Social Capital – Some Evidence from Colombia.” Journal of Economic Issues Vol.31, No.3 September, pp. 805-816.
Rubio, Mauricio. 1998a. “Violence, Organized Crimes, and the Criminal Justice System in Colombia.” Journal of Economic Issues Vol.32, No. 2 (June), pp. 605-610.
________________1998b. “Comment,” pp. 90-92 in Shahid Jared Burki, Sri-Ram Aiyer, and Rudolf Hommes (eds). Proceedings. Annual World Bank Conference on Development in Latin America and the Caribbean, 1996: Poverty and Inequality (Bogotá, Colombia). Washington, DC: The World Bank.
Sambanis, Nicholas. 2002. “A Review of Recent Advances and Future Directions in the Quantitative Literature on Civil War.” Defense and Peace Economics Vol.13, No.3, pp. 215-243.
Sánchez, F and J. Núñez. 2000. “Determinantes del Crímen Violento en un País Altamente Violento: el caso de Colombia”, Los Andes University, Bogotá, Colombia, Manuscript, September.
Tovar Valencia, Alvaro. 1997. “El Conflicto Armado en Colombia –Marco Histórico General”. Revista de las Fuerzas Armadas, Bogotá, Colombia, Marzo.
Uprimny Yepes, Rodrigo. 2001.“Violence, Power, and Collective Action, a comparison between Bolivia and Colombia,” pp. 39-52 in Charles Bergquist, Ricardo Peñaranda, and Gónzalo Sánchez G (eds). Violence in Colombia 1999-2000: waging war and negotiating peace. Wilmington, DE: Scholarly Resources, INC.
Uribe Vélez, Alvaro. 2005. “Visión Colombia II centenario: 2019, propuesta para discussion, resúmen ejecutivo.” Colombian Presidency, National Planning Department (DNP). Bogotá, Colombia. www.dnp.gov.co