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A estrutura teórica do modelo inter-regional para a economia brasileira - MIBRA

Guilhoto, Joaquim José Martins and Hasegawa, Marcos and Lopes, Ricardo Luis (2002): A estrutura teórica do modelo inter-regional para a economia brasileira - MIBRA. Published in: Anais do II Encontro de Estudos Regionais e Urbanos (2002)

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Abstract

The general equilibrium models got importance at the 70's for pointing tendencies that were, until that moment, not experienced by economics. One example was first petrol crisis which econometric models could not predict based on temporal series. On the other hand, the general equilibrium models were capable to indicate this tendency because these models included all economy structure, what allowed the realization of analysis of situations not faced before. Despite that nowadays multiple lines of work about general equilibrium models, models that work with linear equations and results in the form of growth rate, the so called general equilibrium models of the JOHANSEN/ORANI class, and the ones who treats equations on a non-linear form and results in levels, such as Scarf, Adelman & Robinson, Dervis, Melo & Robinson. Using their ORANI model as a start point, the authors developed the MONASH general equilibrium model in national level, both aimed to the Australian economy. From this model it was created the MONASH-MRF model to work in a regional area, also Australia, with the function of realizing statistical comparative analysis and economics previsions. Based on the MONASH-MRF model, an inter regional model was developed to the Brazilian economy, MIBRA, with sixteen sectors and five macro regions, using the input-output matrix of 1995. MIBRA presents five modules:1)The core, with equations that refers to the productive structure of the economy; 2)government finances, which gather equations related to the public finances in both federal and regional levels; 3) Investment and capital accumulation, that focus on the allocation of investments among the sectors and regions 4)External debt accumulation; and 5)Population and migration, which equations are related to population growth and regional migration. The theoretical structure of the MIBRA model is presented in this work.

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