Harin, Alexander (2014): General correcting formulae for forecasts.

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Abstract
The concept of unforeseen events is considered as a part of a hypothesis of uncertain future. The applications of the consequences of the hypothesis in utility and prospect theories are reviewed. Partially unforeseen events and their role in forecasting are analyzed. Preliminary preparations are shown to be able, under specified conditions, to quicken the revisions of forecasts and to hedge or diversify financial risks after partially unforeseen events have occurred. General correcting formulae for forecasts are proposed.
Item Type:  MPRA Paper 

Original Title:  General correcting formulae for forecasts 
Language:  English 
Keywords:  forecast; uncertainty; risk; utility; decisions; Ellsberg paradox; 
Subjects:  C  Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5  Econometric Modeling > C53  Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods D  Microeconomics > D8  Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty D  Microeconomics > D8  Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty > D81  Criteria for DecisionMaking under Risk and Uncertainty 
Item ID:  55283 
Depositing User:  Alexander Harin 
Date Deposited:  12. Apr 2014 11:28 
Last Modified:  23. Mar 2015 06:24 
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URI:  https://mpra.ub.unimuenchen.de/id/eprint/55283 