Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Türkiye Ekonomisinde Sürekli Gelir Hipotezine İlişkin Kanıtlar: Zaman Serileri Analizi (2004-2012)

KARGI, Bilal (2014): Türkiye Ekonomisinde Sürekli Gelir Hipotezine İlişkin Kanıtlar: Zaman Serileri Analizi (2004-2012). Published in: Akademik Bakış , Vol. 42, No. 1 (February 2014): pp. 1-17.

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Abstract

In this study, income and consumption expenditures, which are the reflections of the economic growth’s supply and demand facades, are analyzed. There are six basic hypothesis, which try to explain how consumer spending affected from consumers' income levels and of these the most common is Friedman's "Permanent Income Hypothesis". In this study, evidence for this hypothesis is being sought from Turkey's economy data. As a result of the time-series analysis of quarterly data for the period 2004:01-2012:03, consumers, consumption expenditures are not only affected by current income but also influenced by the expectations of the next period. Indeed, expectations are calculated as the Granger cause of consumer spending. This finding is cited as evidence for Friedman's Permanent Income Hypothesis for Turkey's economy.

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