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Modelização VAR da volatilidade dos preços do ouro e dos índices dos mercados financeiros

Antunes, João Marques and Fuinhas, José Alberto and Marques, António Cardoso (2014): Modelização VAR da volatilidade dos preços do ouro e dos índices dos mercados financeiros.

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Abstract

The interaction of volatility between the financial markets and gold market is analyzed. The volatility of the price of gold in euros, the price of gold in dollars, the U.S. industrial production índex, the S&p500 index, the VIX índex and the PSI20 index for a time horizon between January 1993 to September 2013 using the model Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity. The transmission of volatilities is performed using the Vector Autoregressive model. All variables proved to be endogenous with exception of gold, wich was modeled as an exogenous. Granger causality was detected on variables IPI→S&P500; S&P500→VIX; VIX→PSI20. The analysis of the variance decomposition indicates the prevalence of the explanation of the variables itself. Through these models we proved there is a relationship between the volatility of gold prices and financial markets.

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