Stock returns predictability and the adaptive market hypothesis in emerging markets: evidence from India

Hiremath, Gourishankar S and Kumari, Jyoti (2014): Stock returns predictability and the adaptive market hypothesis in emerging markets: evidence from India. Published in: SpringPlus , Vol. 428, No. 3 (2014): pp. 1-14.

Abstract

This study addresses the question of whether the adaptive market hypothesis provides a better description of the behaviour of emerging stock market like India. We employed linear and nonlinear methods to evaluate the hypothesis empirically. The linear tests show a cyclical pattern in linear dependence suggesting that the Indian stock market switched between periods of efficiency and inefficiency. In contrast, the results from nonlinear tests reveal a strong evidence of nonlinearity in returns throughout the sample period with a sign of tapering magnitude of nonlinear dependence in the recent period. The findings suggest that Indian stock market is moving towards efficiency. The results provide additional insights on association between financial crises, foreign portfolio investments and inefficiency.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Adaptive market hypothesis, Market efficiency, Random walk, Autocorrelation, Nonlinearity, Predictability, Financial crisis, Evolving efficiency, Emerging markets
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C58 - Financial Econometrics; G - Financial Economics > G0 - General > G01 - Financial Crises; G - Financial Economics > G0 - General > G02 - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G12 - Asset Pricing ; Trading Volume ; Bond Interest Rates; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G14 - Information and Market Efficiency ; Event Studies ; Insider Trading

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