Inflation and Breaks: the validity of the Dickey-Fuller test

Ventosa-Santaularària, Daniel and Gómez, Manuel (2006): Inflation and Breaks: the validity of the Dickey-Fuller test. Published in: Brazilian Review of Econometrics , Vol. 29, No. 1 (2009): pp. 1-14.

Abstract

This article proves the asymptotic efficiency of the Dickey Fuller (DF) test when the Data Generating Process of the variable under consideration is in fact mean stationary with breaks. Monte Carlo simulations show that asymptotic properties remain valid for sample sizes of practical interest.

We illustrate its performance by studying inflation rate series, a variable that should be stationary if the monetary authority follows an effective inflation targeting regime: shocks are short-lived, therefore, inflation fluc- tuates randomly around pre-specified targets.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Dickey-Fuller test, Mean Stationary Process, Structural Breaks.
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C12 - Hypothesis Testing: General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation

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