Communicating uncertainty - a fan chart for HICP projections

Gatt, William (2014): Communicating uncertainty - a fan chart for HICP projections. Published in: Central Bank of Malta Quarterly Review 2014:2 (September 2014): pp. 40-44.

Abstract

A short article which motivates the use of a fan chart in the communication of forecasts, with special emphasis on inflation forecasts. A fan chart for Maltese HICP inflation projections is built, using the history of forecast errors.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Inflation, forecasts, fan chart
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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