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Assessing bank's default probability using the ASRF model

Radkov, Petar and Minkova, Leda (2011): Assessing bank's default probability using the ASRF model. Published in: International Journal of Technology Modeling and Management , Vol. 2, No. 2011, 2 (1), 29–34 (25 June 2011)

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Abstract

In this paper it is shown how a Vasicek-model approach and the assumptions in Basel 2 regulatory framework can be used to develop measures of the probability of banks' failure. The Basel 2 framework is based on a Vasicek-model approach. The estimation of the propose measure of bank probability of default could be made over the capital ratio from supervisory authorities (non-public information) or over the capital ratio from balance sheet data (public available information).

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