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Tipo de Cambio Real en Chile: Dinámica, Tendencia y Equilibrio

Miranda, Jorge (2012): Tipo de Cambio Real en Chile: Dinámica, Tendencia y Equilibrio. Published in: Economía Chilena , Vol. 16, No. 3 (December 2013): pp. 4-31.

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Abstract

This paper studies the dynamics of the real exchange rate (RER) in Chile between the years 1986-2008, finding robust evidence of a structural break in its path around the year 1997. The cause is attributed to strong shocks in their long-term fundamentals, due to major structural changes in the chilean economy as were the trade liberalization policies and the transition to a new regime of floating exchange rate in the late nineties. This result would explain the apparent unit root in the RER. Finally, we propose a new metric for measuring the equilibrium real exchange rate based on a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, whose parameters are estimated by Indirect Inference. In this context we reproyect the path of equilibrium real exchange rate of the chilean economy for the years 1996- 2008.

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