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La Politique de Ciblage d’Inflation et “Pass-through” du Taux de Change : Une Analyse en Modèle Panel VAR dans le cadre des Pays Emergents

Kadria, Mohamed and Djelassi, Mouldi (2012): La Politique de Ciblage d’Inflation et “Pass-through” du Taux de Change : Une Analyse en Modèle Panel VAR dans le cadre des Pays Emergents.

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Abstract

This research paper has attempted to analyze the nature of the leverage exerted by the inflation targeting (IT) policy on the pass-through effect in emerging countries. In other words, we tried to answer to the question of whether a climate of low inflation in these countries through the adoption of IT policy, reduces the transmission degree of exchange rate variations to domestic prices (import prices, producer prices and consumer prices). During this investigation, we used a panel VAR approach on a large sample of 30 emerging countries (14 inflation targeters and 16 non- inflation targeters), covering the 1980-2009 period. Our results, learned from the impulse response functions analysis that largely corroborates to the variance decomposition, show that the adoption of IT has helped the targeting countries to reduce the transmission of the exchange rate variations (pass-through) to the three domestic prices indices. Finally, it is suggested for non- inflation targeters, which have experience marked by a too high pass-through effect, to adopt the IT policy in order to gain in terms of credibility and therefore benefit from the feed-back effect in favor of the monetary policy conduct.

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