A Small Model for Output Gap and Potential Growth Estimation. An Application to Bulgaria

Ganev, Kaloyan (2015): A Small Model for Output Gap and Potential Growth Estimation. An Application to Bulgaria.

Abstract

This paper presents the logic and structure of a small and parsimonious macroeconometric model designed for output gap and potential growth estimation in a data-poor environment. Such results can be useful in calculating the cyclically adjusted budget balances which are a key indicator for fiscal policies design in the framework of the EU Stability and Growth Pact. Empirical results using Bulgarian data are also included for illustrative purposes.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: business cycle, output gap, potential growth
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

References

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