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Predicting changes in the output of OECD countries: An international network perspective

Lyocsa, Stefan (2015): Predicting changes in the output of OECD countries: An international network perspective.

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Abstract

We use a simple linear regression framework to present evidence, that complex relationships between stock markets and economies may be used to predict changes in the output of 27 OECD countries. We construct new unidirectional return co-exceedance networks to account for complex relationships between stock market returns, and between real economic growths. Although there is heterogeneity between individual country level results, overall our data and analysis provides evidence that topological properties of our networks are useful for in-sample prediction of next quarter changes in the output.

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