Modeling and Applied Research in Sustainable Development

Zeng, Xiangyu and Zeng, Zhezhao (2015): Modeling and Applied Research in Sustainable Development. Forthcoming in: Ecological Economy , Vol. 12, No. 163 (2015): pp. 28-39.

Abstract

We develop an algebraic polynomial model to measure and compare the sustainability in 4 countries after studying existing sustainable development index systems. The model consists of three facets of indicators: natural resources reserve, environment carrying capacity and social welfare level. We use recursive least-squares method (RLS) to determine the parameters of the fitted model and apply this model to design a sustainable development plan for Tanzania. Considering the country profile and model testing results, the plan comprises of five programs: producing clean water, generating electricity, improving transport conditions, developing tourism industry and advancing medical and health services. Finally we predict the change of each indicator in the next two decades and compare the results under natural state, finding that the sustainability of Tanzania will increase.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: recursive least-squares method (RLS),sustainability hierarchy, development project of Tanzania
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O2 - Development Planning and Policy > O22 - Project Analysis

References

[1] Gilbert J A, Feenstra F J. A Sustainability Indicator for the Dutch Environmental Policy Theme `Diffusion': Cadmium Accumulation in Soil [J]. Ecol. Econ, 1994, 9:253-265.

[2] Nilsson J, Bergström S. Indicators for the Assessment of Ecological and Economic Consequences of Municipal Policies f or Resource Use [J]. Ecol. Econ, 1995, 14:175 -184.

[3] Azar C, Holmberg J, Lindgren K. Socio-ecological Indicators for Sustainability [J]. Ecol. Econ, 1996, 18:89-112.

[4] Stockhammer E, Hochreiter H, Obermayr B, et al. The Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW) as an Alt ernative to GDP in Measuring Economic Welfare. The Results of the Austrian (revised) ISEW Calculation 1955 -1992 [J] .Ecol. Econ, 1997, 21:19 -34.

[5] Bi cknell K B, Ball R J, Cullen R, et al. New Methodology for the Ecological Footprint with an Application to the New Zealand [J] .Ecol. Econ, 1998, 27:149 -160 .

[6] Baloccoa C, Papeschib S, Grazzinia G, et al. Using Exergy to Analyze the Sustainability of an Urban Area [J] .Ecol. Econ , 2004 , 48:231-244 .

[7]Steinborn W, Svirezhev Y. Entropy as an Indicator of Sustainability in Agro-ecosystems: North Germany Case Study [J] .Ecol. Model, 2001, 33:247-257.

[8]Barrera R A, Saldí var V A. Proposal and Application of a Sustainable Development Index [J] .Ecol. Indic, 2002, 2:251 -256.

[9] Wi lliam Rees, Mathis Wackernagel. Urban Ecological Footprints: Why Cities Cannot be Sustainable-and Why They Are a Key to Sustainability [J]. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 1996, 16(4):223-248.

[10]Odum H T, Odum E C. Modeling for all Scales [M]. New York: Academic Press, 2000.

[11]Valyi R, Ortega E. Emergy Simulator, an Open Source Simulation Platform Dedicated to Systems Ecology and Emergy Studies// Ortega, E. Ulgiati, S.(Eds.), Proceedings of the IV International Biennial Workshop Advances in Energy Studies. Brazil, 2004 :349 -360 .

[12]G.H. Golub, Numerical methods for solving linear least squares problems[J]. Numer. Math. 7 (1965) 206-216.

[13]G.H. Golub. Matrix decompositions and statistical calculations[M]. In: R.C. Milton, J.A. Nedler (Eds.), statistical Computations, Academic Press, New York, 1969, pp. 365-397.

[14]Zhezhao Zeng, Xu Zhou. A neural-network method based on RLS algorithm for solving special linear systems of equations[J] 2012, 8(7):2915-2920

[15]C.F. So, S.C. Ng, S.H. Leung. Gradient based variable forgetting factor RLS algorithm, Signal Processing, 83(2003)1163-1175.

[16]Yegui Xiao, Liying Ma. Fast RLS Fourier analyzers capable of accommodating frequency mismatch, Signal Processing, 87(2007)2197-2212.

[17]Zhiyong xiong, The way that developed countries aid Africa—taking Tanzania as example[J] West Asia and Africa, 2003,01:19-22.