Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Modeling and Applied Research in Sustainable Development

Zeng, Xiangyu and Zeng, Zhezhao (2015): Modeling and Applied Research in Sustainable Development. Forthcoming in: Ecological Economy , Vol. 12, No. 163 (2015): pp. 28-39.

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We develop an algebraic polynomial model to measure and compare the sustainability in 4 countries after studying existing sustainable development index systems. The model consists of three facets of indicators: natural resources reserve, environment carrying capacity and social welfare level. We use recursive least-squares method (RLS) to determine the parameters of the fitted model and apply this model to design a sustainable development plan for Tanzania. Considering the country profile and model testing results, the plan comprises of five programs: producing clean water, generating electricity, improving transport conditions, developing tourism industry and advancing medical and health services. Finally we predict the change of each indicator in the next two decades and compare the results under natural state, finding that the sustainability of Tanzania will increase.

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