The ins and outs of Greek unemployment in the Great Depression

Daouli, Joan and Demoussis, Michael and Giannakopoulos, Nicholas and Lambropoulou, Nikolitsa (2015): The ins and outs of Greek unemployment in the Great Depression.

Abstract

We investigate the unemployment inflows and outflows using micro-data from the Greek Labour Force Survey (1998-2013). Focusing on the post-2008 recessionary period, aggregate unemployment decompositions show that both, inflow and outflow rates affect unemployment variations. In particular, early in the recession the inflow rate dominates while later the outflow rate takes over. These findings remain unaltered when unemployment persistence and low transition rates are taken into account. Furthermore, applying multinomial regression techniques we find that the ins and outs of unemployment vary with individual-specific heterogeneity (gender, age, education, etc.). This heterogeneity however exhibits a differentiated impact in the pre- and post-2008 periods. Overall, the design of an effective employment policy in Greece needs to take into consideration the exceptionally low job finding rate (10%) and its composition in the ongoing labour market crisis.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Unemployment, worker flows, transition probabilities, unemployment decomposition
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C50 - General; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J6 - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers

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