Forecasting Tourist Arrivals Using Origin Country Macroeconomics

Chatziantoniou, Ioannis and Degiannakis, Stavros and Eeckels, Bruno and Filis, George (2015): Forecasting Tourist Arrivals Using Origin Country Macroeconomics. Forthcoming in: Applied Economics

Abstract

This study utilizes both disaggregated data and macroeconomic indicators in order to examine the importance of the macroeconomic environment of origin countries for analysing destinations’ tourist arrivals. In particular, it is the first study to present strong empirical evidence that both of these features in tandem provide statistically significant information of tourist arrivals in Greece. The forecasting exercises presented in our analysis show that macroeconomic indicators conducive to better forecasts are mainly origin country-specific, thus highlighting the importance of considering the apparent sharp national contrasts among origin countries when investigating domestic tourist arrivals. Given the extent of the dependency of the Greek economy on tourism income, but also, given the perishable nature of the tourist product itself, results have important implications for policy makers in Greece.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Tourist arrivals forecasting, seasonal ARIMA, Diebold-Mariano test, disaggregated data, macroeconomic indicators.
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F19 - Other; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O10 - General

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