A Rational Inattention Perspective on Equilibrium Asset Pricing under Heterogeneous Information with Structural Breaks and Market Efficiency

Heinke, Steve and Warmuth, Niels (2016): A Rational Inattention Perspective on Equilibrium Asset Pricing under Heterogeneous Information with Structural Breaks and Market Efficiency.

Abstract

In this paper we present a new model of how information travels within financial markets and present empirical evidence that the concept of attention driven information efficiency is more conjugate with market data as compared to the prevailing concept of efficient markets. Augmenting our model by a shift component made it possible to explain shifts in asset prices by a lack of attention on small permanent changes in the fundamentals. This can also be seen as a micro-level explanation of the momentum effect. By a further augmentation of the model through the introduction of heterogeneous information processing capacities we are able to give a fundamental interpretation of the financial services industry as providers of information processing capacity. Moreover, the burst of the housing bubble in the US and the successful bet of John Paulson against it are shown to be prime empirical examples of our framework.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Limited attention, asset pricing, rational inattention, momentum trading
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6 - Mathematical Methods ; Programming Models ; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling > C60 - General; D - Microeconomics > D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty > D80 - General; D - Microeconomics > D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty > D83 - Search ; Learning ; Information and Knowledge ; Communication ; Belief ; Unawareness; D - Microeconomics > D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty > D84 - Expectations ; Speculations; D - Microeconomics > D9 - Intertemporal Choice > D92 - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G12 - Asset Pricing ; Trading Volume ; Bond Interest Rates; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G14 - Information and Market Efficiency ; Event Studies ; Insider Trading

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