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Assessing the Effects of Housing Market Shocks on Output: The Case of South Africa

Njindan Iyke, Bernard (2015): Assessing the Effects of Housing Market Shocks on Output: The Case of South Africa.

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Abstract

This paper assessed the effects of housing market shocks on real output in South Africa over the period 1969Q4 – 2014Q4, by emphasizing the real private consumption channel. The agnostic identification procedure employed in this paper has delivered impulse responses that are overall consistent with the existing literature. The paper appropriately identified housing market shocks as non-monetary housing demand shocks. 20% of the variation in house prices are explained by the housing market shocks. The effects of housing demand shocks on real private consumption are short-lived, explaining why real output responded transitorily to these shocks. Housing demand shocks have managed to explain nearly 13% and 14% variations in real private consumption and real output, respectively, over 20-quarters ahead forecast revision.

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