Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Nacionalna proizvodnja i makroagregati u stalnim cenama kao njen realan izraz

Bukvić, Rajko (2007): Nacionalna proizvodnja i makroagregati u stalnim cenama kao njen realan izraz. Published in: Statistička revija (Statistical Review) , Vol. 56, No. 3–4 (2007): pp. 30-52.

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Abstract

The paper discusses adequacy of use of time series in constant prices (for any chosen, „basic", year), as being „real” expression of corresponding (economic) aggregates. The analysis focuses on the series of GDP as real values of the year production of nation. On the basis of GDP series of Yugoslav republics and provinces for the period 1959–1973, for wich the official statistical GDP data at the constant prices from the year 1966 and 1972 exists, it was presented that results of corresponding analyses very varying for the one or other basis for constant prices. The results of theoretical analysis has showed that these series are influenced by the realized price structure for the year chosen, thus relativizing „real” data. In addition to this, the conclusion calls for applying a different approach in expressing prices, i.e. for „non-original” base year. Since official statistical data do not make it possible, it is necessary to recalculate them to non-original basis. Further, a particular procedure of recalculating the data is considered, which is based on transformation of implicit GDP deflators of corresponding time series to value equalling one in new base year. It has also been shown that the results of this recalculation are influenced by the realized price structure too. In the further part of the paper, theoretical discussion is illustrated by an example of recalculating a number of time series for GDPs of Yugoslav republics (for the period 1959–73, thus making it possible to undertake an empirical test of (un)adequacy of the approach chosen. The example has produced results (a number of recalculated series), which considerably deviate from original series, thus proving that it is necessary to relativize to a considerable degree the use of „real” series in constant prices. Additionally, it has also been proved that neither the alternative way of recalculating the data to some „non-original” base year can produce satisfactory results. Consequently, another important conclusion has been drawn, i.e. that official statistical aggregate data should be simultaneously published for a longer period; and that transition to new base year must be perhaps regularly and in the shorter periods made. Additionally, when switching to a new base year, the old base year – now being „real” year for measuring aggregate – should be kept for some time. Rad se bavi problemima adekvatnosti korišćenja vremenskih serija u stalnim cenama kao „realnih” izraza odgovarajućih (ekonomskih) agregata, konkretno serija društvenog proizvoda kao „realnog” izraza ostvarene nacionalne proizvodnje. Serije društvenog proizvoda po jugoslovenskim republikama i pokrajinama za period 1959–1973, za koji jedino postoje uporedni zvanični podaci iskazani u cenama iz dveju „baznih” (1966. i 1972) godina, pokazuju da se rezultati odgovarajućih analiza značajno razlikuju kada se koriste serije s jednom u odnosu na serije s drugom „baznom” godinom. Teorijska analiza pokazuje da na veličine ovih serija utiče i ostvarena cenovna struktura iz date „bazne” godine, što značajno relativizuje ove podatke kao „realne”, i ističe potrebu njihovog iskazivanja i u cenama iz neke druge „nebazne” godine. Zvanična statistika to ne daje, pa je potrebno preračunavanje postojećih serija s originalne na neoriginalnu baznu godinu. Međutim, jedan od predloženih postupaka za ovo preračunavanje, zasnovan na prevođenju implicitnih deflatora odgovarajuće serije na vrednosti jednake jedinici u novoj baznoj godini, ne rešava problem uticaja cenovne strukture iz originalne bazne godine na rezultate ovog preračunavanja. Ta preračunavanja pokazala su da preračunate serije značajno odstupaju od originalnih, što potvrđuje da se korišćenje serija u stalnim cenama kao „realnih” mora relativizovati, kao i da razmatrani postupak preračunavanja na neku drugu, „neoriginalnu”, baznu godinu ne može da da dovoljno dobre rezultate. Kao važni zaključci istaknute su potrebe da zvanična statistika uporedo prati odgovarajuće agregate u cenama iz većeg broja godina, kao i da se prelazak na novu baznu godinu obavlja u kraćim i redovnijim intervalima. Shodno tome, prilikom sledećeg prelaza na novu baznu godinu potrebno je za početak bar ne napustiti njihovo praćenje u cenama iz postojeće bazne godine za „realno” iskazane agregate.

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