Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Exchange Rate Modeling: The Case of Ruble

Kuzmin, Anton (2015): Exchange Rate Modeling: The Case of Ruble. Published in: Review of Business and Economics Studies , Vol. 3, No. 3 (September 2015): pp. 39-48.

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The model of the equilibrium exchange rate of ruble is under construction on the basis of streams of the balance of payments of Russia taking into account trade conditions. Export-import transactions, factors of movement of the capital, a trade condition, indexes of the internal and export prices, and real gross domestic product, factors of elasticity of the foreign trade operations, decisions of microagents are used as base determinants in the model. In the process of creating the model it was justified a number of key internal dynamic functional dependencies were found that has allowed us to put the capital flows in the model on formal logical level, and, thus, to extend the model to the case of capital mobility. We discuss the relationship results from the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate in the framework of the author's conceptual approach to the assessment of the equilibrium exchange rate based on international flows (IFEER). The technique of adjustment of model internal parametres is offered with a view of macroeconomic regulation of the exchange rate of ruble. Based on the modeling results we built the analysis of the dynamics of the nominal exchange rate of ruble in 2013- 2015.

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