Dynamic GMM Estimation With Structural Breaks. An Application to Global Warming and its Causes.

Travaglini, Guido (2008): Dynamic GMM Estimation With Structural Breaks. An Application to Global Warming and its Causes.

Abstract

In this paper I propose a nonstandard t-test statistic for detecting level and trend breaks of I(0) series. Theoretical and limit-distribution critical values obtained from Montecarlo experimentation are supplied. The null hypothesis of anthropogenic versus natural causes of global warming is then tested for the period 1850-2006 by means of a dynamic GMM model which incorporates the null of breaks of anthropogenic origin. World average temperatures are found to be tapering off since a few decades by now, and to exhibit no significant breaks attributable to human activities. While these play a minor causative role in climate changes, most natural forcings and in particular solar sunspots are major warmers. Finally, in contrast to widely held opinions, greenhouse gases are in general temperature dimmers.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Generalized Method of Moments, Multiple Breaks, Principal Component Analysis, Global Warming
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C51 - Model Construction and Estimation; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters and Their Management ; Global Warming

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