Travaglini, Guido (2008): Dynamic GMM Estimation With Structural Breaks. An Application to Global Warming and its Causes.

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Abstract
In this paper I propose a nonstandard ttest statistic for detecting level and trend breaks of I(0) series. Theoretical and limitdistribution critical values obtained from Montecarlo experimentation are supplied. The null hypothesis of anthropogenic versus natural causes of global warming is then tested for the period 18502006 by means of a dynamic GMM model which incorporates the null of breaks of anthropogenic origin. World average temperatures are found to be tapering off since a few decades by now, and to exhibit no significant breaks attributable to human activities. While these play a minor causative role in climate changes, most natural forcings and in particular solar sunspots are major warmers. Finally, in contrast to widely held opinions, greenhouse gases are in general temperature dimmers.
Item Type:  MPRA Paper 

Original Title:  Dynamic GMM Estimation With Structural Breaks. An Application to Global Warming and its Causes. 
Language:  English 
Keywords:  Generalized Method of Moments, Multiple Breaks, Principal Component Analysis, Global Warming 
Subjects:  C  Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5  Econometric Modeling > C51  Model Construction and Estimation C  Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2  Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22  TimeSeries Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes Q  Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5  Environmental Economics > Q54  Climate ; Natural Disasters and Their Management ; Global Warming 
Item ID:  7108 
Depositing User:  Guido Travaglini 
Date Deposited:  12. Feb 2008 00:29 
Last Modified:  14. Feb 2013 09:13 
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URI:  https://mpra.ub.unimuenchen.de/id/eprint/7108 