Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Ciclos Económicos Sincronizados y Uniones Monetarias en Centroamérica y la República Dominicana

Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis (2005): Ciclos Económicos Sincronizados y Uniones Monetarias en Centroamérica y la República Dominicana.

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Abstract

This paper presents an application of the techniques of regime change (univariate and bivariate) to analyze the behavior of the business cycle in Central America, Belize, Panama, the Dominican Republic and the United States, by detecting changes in the average growth and identifying differences between contractions and expansions regarding persistence and duration. In general, periods of expansions are more persistent and longer than contractions. From an international perspective, no evidence to support the idea of a common business cycle were found. The relationship between Honduras and Panama shows a strong correlation of their business cycles. However, the correlation of these countries with the United States does not suggest a process of dollarization.

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