Exchange rate Pass-through and Monetary Policy in Transition Economy: Evidence from Tunisia with disaggregated VAR Analysis

Dahem, Ahlem and Siala Guermazi, Fatma (2016): Exchange rate Pass-through and Monetary Policy in Transition Economy: Evidence from Tunisia with disaggregated VAR Analysis.

Abstract

The issue of exchange rate pass-through has raised interest in international economy, a necessary step for adopting an adequate monetary policy, which accentuated in 2000 given its impacts on the monetary policy. Yet, on the academic level, research attempts at studying small open economy in a transitory period, e.g. Tunisia, seem to bring about only a few responses. Relying on monthly and quarterly data, from 2000 to 2015, this paper keeps up with SVAR modeling and price chain study, but through two different approaches: a direct aggregate approach that aims at checking the direct impact of exchange rate transmissions on the global prices, and a disaggregate approach that aims at analyzing the exchange rate degree of transmission on the various components of consumer price. To our knowledge, this study is the first attempt at exchange rate pass-through estimation through a disaggregate approach for the consumer price indexe. The main preliminary findings show that the total exchange rate pass-through is about 20% after 2011. Specifically, 10% of pass-through on the administered prices. More accurately, there is a 6% of pass-through degree for food administered prices as well as 7% of pass-through degree for energy prices (after 2011 revolution date), which contradicts the prevailing theory that admits the inexistence of pass-through for administered prices. On the whole, our findings confirm the importance of a disaggregate analysis for studying exchange rate pass-through, and can help policy makers in Tunisia to adopt the appropriate strategies for implementing monetary policy and containing inflation.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Exchange Rate Pass-through – Monetary policy – Emerging Market – Disaggregated analysis
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E41 - Demand for Money; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E52 - Monetary Policy; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F31 - Foreign Exchange; F - International Economics > F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance > F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O5 - Economywide Country Studies > O55 - Africa

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