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A dynamic analysis of France's external trade

Belessiotis, Tassos and Carone, Giuseppe (1997): A dynamic analysis of France's external trade. Published in: European Economy - Economic Papers (European Commission DG ECFIN) No. 122 (November 1997): pp. 1-70.


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The purpose of the present paper is to review the sources of France's trade surplus in recent years and to attribute trade balance movements strictly to those determinants of trade flows suggested by economic theory. These determinants are price and/or cost developments, and demand in France and in the rest of the world. A primary objective of the paper is to analyse the dynamics of adjustment of trade flows to changes in competitiveness and in relative demand. To do so, a cointegration/error-correction model is applied to flows of both imports and exports, and the estimates of key elasticities obtained are instrumental in shedding light on this question.

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