Housing Prices and Business Cycle in China: A DSGE Analysis

He, Qing and Liu, Fangge and Qian, Zhongxin and Chong, Terence Tai Leung (2016): Housing Prices and Business Cycle in China: A DSGE Analysis. Forthcoming in: International Review of Economics and Finance

Abstract

We investigate the interaction between the real estate market and the business cycle volatility in China over the past two decades. A Bayesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with nominal stickiness and collateral constraints is estimated. It is found that shocks from the housing market (e.g., loan-to-value ratio and housing preference shocks) affect the macroeconomy of China. The interactive feedback between credit constraints and housing prices amplifies the impact of various economic shocks, which plays an important role in explaining the business cycle volatility in China.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: housing prices; business cycle; DSGE; China
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E42 - Monetary Systems ; Standards ; Regimes ; Government and the Monetary System ; Payment Systems; R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R3 - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location > R31 - Housing Supply and Markets

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