A contribution to the Quantity Theory of Disaggregated Credit

Clavero, Borja (2017): A contribution to the Quantity Theory of Disaggregated Credit.

Abstract

In my view, Richard Werner is sitting on a pot of gold. In Werner (2014), he has shown the tremendous potential his ‘Quantity Theory of Credit’ has to reorient public policy and stimulate nominal GDP. Yet, his ideas do not seem to take root. In this paper my aim is to refine his theory and provide some improvements by constructing new empirical proxies of ‘bank credit for GDP transactions’—a quite arduous and open-ended task. I conclude that the theory is very promising, but it is still in a stage of maturation.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: bank credit, Quantity Theory of Credit, credit-growth nexus, banking and the economy, disaggregation of credit, credit creation, flow of funds, national accounts
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E50 - General; G - Financial Economics > G2 - Financial Institutions and Services > G21 - Banks ; Depository Institutions ; Micro Finance Institutions ; Mortgages

References

Adrian, T., Colla, P. and Shin, H.S. (2013), ‘Which Financial Frictions? Parsing the Evidence from the Financial Crisis of 2007 to 2009’, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 27, 159-214

Allen, F., T. Beck, E. Carletti, P.R. Lane, D. Schoenmaker, and W. Wagner (2011), Cross-border banking in Europe: Implications for financial stability and macroeconomic policies, Centre for Economic Policy Research 2011

Arcand, J.L., E. Berkes & U. Panizza (2015) ‘Too Much Finance?’ Journal of Economic Growth

Aron, J., Duca, J.V., Muellbauer, J., Murata, K. and Murphy, A. (2012), ‘Credit, Housing Collateral, and Consumption: Evidence from Japan, the UK, and the US’, Review of Income and Wealth, Vol. 58, No. 3, pp. 397-423

Ashcraft, A. B. (2005). ‘Are banks really special? New evidence from the FDIC-induced failure of healthy banks’. American Economic Review, 95(5)

Assa J. (2012) OECD, ‘Financialization and its Consequences: the OECD Experience’, VOL. 1, NO. 1, JANUARY 2012, New School for Social Research

Bank of England (2016), Credit Conditions Survey: Survey Results 2016Q2

Barnett, A. and Thomas, R. (2013), ‘Has weak lending and activity in the United Kingdom been driven by credit supply shocks?’, Bank of England Working Papers, No. 482

Bauwens, L., and Sucarrat, G. (2010). General-to-specific modelling of exhange rate volatility: A forecast evaluation. International Journal of Forecasting, 26, 885–907.

Bê Duc, L., and G. Le Breton (2009), ‘Flow-of-funds analysis at the ECB: Framework and applications’, ECB Occasional Paper Series, No. 105, August 2009

Beck, T., Büyükkarabacak, B., Rioja, F.K. and Valev, N.T. (2012), ‘Who gets the credit? And does it matter? Household vs. firm lending across countries’, The BE Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 12, No. 1

Beck, T., Levine, R., 2004. Stock markets, banks, and growth: panel evidence. Journal of Banking and Finance 28 (3), 423–442.

Beck, T., Levine, R., Loayza, N., 2000. Finance and the sources of growth. Journal of Financial Economics 58 (1–2), 261–300.

Beck, T., Demirgüç-Kunt, A., Maksimovic, V., 2005. ‘Financial and legal constraints to firm growth: does size matter?’ Journal of Finance 60 (1), 137–177

Belongia, M. T., & Chalfant, J. A. (1990). Alternative measures of money as.

Benes, J., M. Kumhof, and D. Laxton (2014a), ‘Financial crisis in DSGE models: A prototype model’, IMF Working Paper WP/14/57

Benes, J., M. Kumhof, and D. Laxton (2014b), ‘Financial Crises in DSGE Models: Selected Applications of MAPMOD,’ IMF Working Paper

Benford, J., S. Berry, K. Nikolov, and C. Young (2009), ‘Quantitative easing’. Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin 2009 Q2

Benito, A, Thompson, J, Waldron, M and Wood, R (2006), ‘House prices and consumer spending’, Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Summer, pages 142–54

Bentham, J. (1952-54). Bentham’s economic writings, critical edition based on his printed works and unprinted manuscripts, three volumes edited by Werner Stark and the Royal Economic Society. Allen & Unwin

Berry, S., R. Harrison, R. Thomas and I. de Weymarn (2007), ‘Interpreting movements in broad money’. Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin 2007 Q3

Bezemer, D. (2014), ‘Schumpeter might be right again: The functional differentiation of credit’, Journal of Evolutionary Economics, November 2014, Volume 24, Issue 5, pp 935–950

Bezemer, D., and R. Werner (2009), ‘Disaggregated credit flows and growth in Central Europe’. MPRA Paper No. 17456, posted 22. September 2009. Online at http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/17456/

Bezemer, D., and L. Zhang (2014), ‘From boom to bust in the credit cycle: The role of mortage credit’, University of Groningen, 14025-GEM

Bezemer, D., and M. Hudson (2016), ‘Finance is not the economy: Reviving the conceptual distinction’ Journal of Economic Issues, 50:3, 745-768

Bindseil, U. (2004), ‘The Operational Target of Monetary Policy and the Rise and Fall of Reserve Position Doctrine’, European Central Bank Working Paper Series, No. 372

Binmore, K., and P. Klemperer (2002), ‘The biggest auction ever: The sale of the british 3G telecom licenses’, The Economic Journal, 112 (march), C74-C96

BIS (2016a), ‘Long series on total credit and domestic bank credit to the private non-financial sector’

BIS (2016b), 86th Annual Report, 1 April 2015 – 31 March 2016, Basel, 26 June 2016

Blanchard (2016), ‘The state of advanced economies and related policy debates: A fall 2016 assessment’. Peterson Institute for International Economics

Blanchard, O. J., & Fischer, S. (1989). Lectures on macroeconomics. Cambridge

BGFRS, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (2013) . Financial Accounts Guide to the Flow of Funds Accounts. Washington, D.C.: BGFRS, 2013. Available at www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/FOFTables.aspx

Borio, C., and Lowe, P. (2004). ‘Securing sustainable price stability: Should credit come back from the wilderness?’ BIS Working Paper no. 157.

Borio, C. and Disyatat, P. (2009), ‘Unconventional Monetary Policy: An Appraisal’, BIS Working Papers, No. 292

Borio, C., and P. Disyatat (2011), ‘Global imbalances and the financial crisis: Link or no link?’. BIS Working Papers No. 346

Boughton, J. M. (1991). ‘Long-run money demand in large industrial countries’. IMF Staff Papers, 38(1), 1–32

Bridges, J., N. Rossiter, and R. Thomas (2011), ‘Understanding the recent weakness in broad money growth’, Bank of England Quarterly Bulltin 2011 Q1

Brunner, K., and A. Metzer (1990), ‘Money supply’. In Friedman, B. and F. Hahn, Handbook of Monetary Economics, Amsterdam, North Holland, 1990

Brunnermeier, M., H. James, and J.-P. Landau (2016), The Euro and the Battle of Ideas, Princeton University Press

Bundesbank (2009), Geld und Geldpolitik, Frankfurt am Main: Deutsche Bundesbank

Bundesbank (2012), Geld und Geldpolitik, Frankfurt am Main: Deutsche Bundesbank

Bunn, P., and M. Rostrom (2014), ‘Household debt and spending’, Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin 2014Q3

Burgess, S. (2011) ‘Measuring financial sector output and its contribution to GDP’. Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin 2011 Q2

Burgess, S., and N. Janssen (2007), ‘Proposals to modify the measurement of broad money in the United Kingdom: A user consultation’. Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin 2007 Q3

Button, R., and S. Pezzini (2010), ‘Understanding the price of new lending yo households’, Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin 2010 Q3

Calza, A., Manrique, M., and Sousa, J. (2006). ‘Credit in the Euro area: An empirical investigation using aggregate data’. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 46(2), 211–226

Carpenter, S. and Demiralp, S. (2010), ‘Money, Reserves, and the Transmission of Monetary Policy: Does the Money Multiplier Exist?’, Finance and Economics Discussion Series, No. 2010-41, Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs, Washington, DC: Federal Reserve Board

Cecchetti, G., Kharroubi, E., 2012. ‘Reassessing the impact of finance on growth’. BIS Working Papers No. 381, Bank for International Settlements.

Cecchetti, G., Kharroubi, E., 2013. ‘Why does financial sector growth crowd out real economic growth?’ Finance and the Wealth of Nations Workshop, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco & The Institute of New Economic Thinking, Sept 27, 2013.

Cheeseright, P. (1994), ‘Market of Reliant in receivership’. Financial Times, 7

Cheng, C., and Werner, R. A. (2015), ‘An empirical analysis of economic research produced by five major central banks (1988–2008)’. CBFSD discussion paper. Centre for Banking, Finance and Sustainable Development, University of Southampton

Ciccarelli, M., A. Maddaloni, and J.L. Peydró (2010), ‘Trusting the bankers: A new look at the credit channel of monetary policy’. ECB Working Paper Series No. 1228, July 2010

Clavero, B. (forthcoming), ‘Targeted monetisation: A policy instrument for all seasons?’. MPRA

Cœuré (2014), ‘The optimal size of the financial sector’. Speech by Benoît Cœuré, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the ECB Conference Frankfurt, 2 September 2014

Constancio, V. (2011), ‘Challenges to monetary policy in 2012’. Speech by Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President of the ECB, 26th International Conference on Interest Rates, Frankfurt am Main, 8 December 2011 http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2011/html/sp111208.en.html

Crowe, C., Dell’ariccia, G., Igan, D. and Rabanal, P. (2013), ‘How to deal with real estate booms: lessons from country experiences’. Journal of Financial Stability, Vol. 9, No. 3, pp. 300- 319.

Davey, M (2001), ‘Mortgage equity withdrawal and consumption’, Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Spring, pages 100–03

Davis, E., and Zhu, H. (2011). ‘Bank lending and commercial property cycles: Some crosscountry evidence’. Journal of International Money and Finance, 30, 1–21

Disyatat, P. (2010), ‘The Bank Lending Channel Revisited’, Bank for International Settlements, BIS Working Papers No. 297 DMO (2011), Annual Report and Accounts 2010-2011, UK Debt Management Office

DMO (2016a), DMO Annual Review 2015-16, UK Debt Management Office

DMO (2016b), Annual Report and Accounts 2015-2016, UK Debt Management Office

Dudley, W.C. (2009), ‘The economic outlook and the Fed's balance sheet – the issue of ‘how’ versus ‘when’’. Remarks by Mr William C Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the Association for a Better New York Breakfast Meeting, New York, 29 July 2009.

Elmendorf, D.W., and N.G. Mankiew (1998), ‘Government debt’. NBER Working Paper 6470

ECB (2011), ‘Monthly bulletin: October 2011’, European Central Bank

ECB (2012), ‘Monthly Bulletin, May 2012’, Frankfurt: European Central Bank

Eurostat (2011), Handbook of Price and Volume Measures in National Accounts

Eurostat (2013), European System of Accounts: ESA 2010

Eurostat (2016), Handbook on Prices and Volume Measures in National Accounts

Fama, E. F. (1985). ‘What’s different about banks’. Journal of Monetary Economics.

Favara, G., and J. Imbs (2014), ‘Credit Supply and the Price of Housing’, www.jeanimbs.com/papers2_files/Favara_Imbs_May2014.pdf

FCA (2013), Glossary of Definitions, Financial Conduct Authority

FCA (2016), Finanial Conduct Authority Handbook 2016: CASS-I, August 2016, Financial Conduct Authority

Feroli, M. (2010), Global Data Watch, Economic Research, J.P. Morgan Chase Bank, New York

Friedman, M., (1977), ‘Quantity Theory’, Encyclopedia Britannica, 15th edition

Gertler, M. and Kiyotaki, N. (2010), ‘Financial Intermediation and Credit Policy in Business Cycle Analysis’, 2010, Handbook of Monetary Economics

Goodhart, C. A. E. (1989a). The conduct of monetary policy. The Economic Journal, 99, 293–346.

Goodhart, C. (1989b), Money, Information and Uncertainty, Cambridge: MIT Press 1989

Goodhart, C. (1995), Central banks and the financial system, MIT Press

Goodhart, C. (2007), ‘Whatever Became of the Monetary Aggregates?’, adapted from the Peston Lecture in honour of Maurice, Lord Peston, delivered at Queen Mary College, London, on February 28, 2007

Goodhart, C., and Hofmann, B. (2003). ‘Deflation, credit and asset prices’. HKIMR working paper no. 13/2003

Goodhart, C. and Hofmann, B. (2008), ‘House prices, money, credit, and the macroeconomy’, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol. 24, No. 1, pp. 180-205

Goodhart, C. (2010), ‘Money, credit and bank behaviour: need for a new approach”, National Institute Economic Review, Vol. 214, No. 1.

Godley, W., and M. Lavoie (2007), Monetary Economics: An Integrated Approach to Credit, Money, Income, Production, and Wealth

Gray, S. (2011), ‘Central bank balances and reserve requirements’, IMF Working Paper WP/11/36

Grydaki, M. and Bezemer, D. (2013), ‘The role of credit in the Great Moderation: A multivariate GARCH approach’, Journal of Banking & Finance, Vol. 37, No. 11, pp. 4615-4626

Harari, D. (2016), ‘Household debt: Statistics and impact on economy’, House of Commons Library Briefing Paper, Number 7584, 31 August 2016

Hendry, D. F. (1985). Monetary economic myth and econometric reality. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 1(1), 72–84

Hendry, D. F., and Mizon, G. E. (1978), ‘Serial correlation as a convenient simplification, not nuisance: A comment’. The Economic Journal, 88, 549–563

HM Treasury (2013), Managing Public Money

HM Treasury (2015), Debt and reserves management report 2015-16

Hoggarth, G., J. Hooley, and Y. Korniyenko (2013), ‘Which way do foreign branches sway? Evidence from the the recent UK domestic credit cycle’. Bank of England, Financial Stability Paper No. 22 – June 2013

Holmes, A. (1969), ‘Operational constraints on the stabilization of money supply growth’

Humphrey, T.M. (1984), ‘Algebraic quantity equations before Fisher and Pigou’, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

ICRPP (2002), Foreign Direct Investment and Domestic Capital Formation, Industry Canada Research Publications Program, Working Paper No. 36, April 2002

IMF (2009), Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual, International Monetary Fund

IMF (2014), Revised Guidelines for Public Debt Management, International Monetary Fund

IMF (2015), Handbook of Securities Statistics, International Monetary Fund

Jakab, Z., and M. Kumhof (2014), ‘Models of banking: Loanable funds or loans that create deposits?’, IMF

Jakab, Z., and M. Kumhof (2015), ‘Banks are not intermediaries of loanable funds – and why this matters’, Bank of England, Working Paper No. 529

Jordá, O., M. Schularick, and A.M. Taylor (2014a), ‘Betting the house’

Jordá, O., M. Schularick, and A.M. Taylor (2014b), ‘The great mortgaging: Housing finance, crises, and business cycles’. NBER Working Paper No. 20501

Jordá, O., M. Schularick, and A.M. Taylor (2015), ‘Leveraged bubbles’

King, G.R., Levine, R. (1993a),‘Finance and growth: Schumpeter might be right’. Quarterly Journal of Economics 108 (3), 717–737.

King, G.R., Levine, R. (1993b), ‘Finance, entrepreneurship and growth’. Journal of Monetary Economics 32 (3), 1–30.

King., M. (1994), ‘The transmission mechanism of monetary policy’, Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin (1994), p. 264

King, M. (2012), Speech to the South Wales Chamber of Commerce at The Millennium Centre, Cardiff on 23rd October 2012

Krugman, P. (2012), ‘Banking mysticism’, New York Times, The Opinion Pages

Kumhof, M., and Z. Jakab (2016), ‘The truth about banks’, IMF, Finance & Development March 2016

Kydland, F. and E. Prescott (1990), ‘Business cycles: real facts and a monetary myth’. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Quarterly Review, Spring 1990

Law, S.H., and N. Singh (2014), ‘Does too much finance harm economic growth?’. Journal of Banking & Finance 41 (2014) 36–44

Leary, M. T. (2009). Bank loan supply, lender choice, and corporate capital

Levine, R. (1997), ‘Financial development and economic growth: views and agenda’. Journal of Economic Literature 35 (2), 688–726.

Levine, R. (2003), ‘More on finance and growth: more finance, more growth?’ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 85 (July), 31–46.

Levine, R. (2005), ‘Finance and growth: Theory and evidence’. In P. Aghion and S.N. Durlauf, Handbook of Economic Growth, Volume 1A, Elsevier

Liang, Q., & Cao, H. (2007), ‘Property prices and bank lending in China’, Journal of Asian Economics, 18, 63–75

Lombra, R. (1992), ‘Understanding the Remarkable Survival of Multiplier Models of Money Stock Determination’, Eastern Economic Journal, 18(3), 305-314

Lyonnet, V., and R. Werner (2012), ‘Lessons from the Bank of England on ‘quantitative easing’ and other ‘unconventional’ monetary policies’. International Review of Financial Analysis 25 (2012) 94–105

McLeay, M., A. Radia, and R. Thomas (2014), ‘Money creation in the modern economy’, Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin 2014Q1

Mill, J. S. (1848). Principles of political economy: With some of their applications to social philosophy. London: Hackett Publishing.

Modigliani, F and Brumberg, R (1979), ‘Utility analysis and the consumption function: an attempt at integration’, in Abel, A (ed), The collected papers of Franco Modigliani, Vol. 2, MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, pages 128–97

Muellbauer, J. (2009), ‘Household Decisions, Credit Markets and the Macroeconomy: Implications for the Design of Central Bank Models’. B.I.S Working Paper, No. 306

Muellbauer, J., Murphy, A. (2008), ‘Housing markets and the economy: the assessment’. Oxf. Rev. Econ. Policy 24 (1), 1–33

OBR (2015), Economic and Fiscal Outlook, March 2015, UK Office for Budget Responsibility

O’Brien, Y.-Y.C. (2007), ‘Reserve requirements in OECD countries’. Staff working papers in the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS), Federal Reserve Board, Washington D.C.

OECD (2008), OECD Benchmark Definition of Foreign Direct Investment, Fourth Edition 2008

OECD & Eurostat (2012), ‘Component expenditures of GDP’, in Eurostat-OECD Methodological Manual on Purchasing Power Parities, OECD Publishing. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264189232-7-en

OECD (2015), ‘New standards for compiling national accounts: What’s the impact on GDP and other macro-economic indicators?’. OECD Statistics Brief. February 2015, No. 20

ONS (2016), Public sector finances: June 2016, UK Office for National Statistics

Panizza, U. (2012) ‘Finance and Economic Development,’ International Development Policy

Panizza, U. (2014) ‘Financial Development and Economic Growth: Known Knowns, Known Unknowns, and Unknown Unknowns’, 2013 AFD-BMZ-EUDN annual conference on development

Pearl, J. (2009), Causality: Models, Reasoning and Inference, 2nd edition, Cambridge University Press

Peek, J., and Rosengren, E. S. (2000). Collateral damage: Effects of the Japanese

Pigou, A.C. (1917), ‘The value of money.’ Quarterly Journal of Economics 32 (1917-18). Reprinted in Readings in Monetary Theory, ed. F. A. Lutz and L. W. Mints. Philadelphia, 1951, pp. 162-183

Popper, K. (1998). ‘Science: Conjectures and refutations’. Originally published in 1957 under the title Philosophy of science. A Personal report in Mace, C. E. (Ed.) British philosophy in mid-century. New York, NY, USA: MacMillan. Reprinted in edited form in Klemke, E. D., et al. (eds.). (1998). Introductory readings in the philosophy of science (3rd ed., pp. 38–47). Amherst, MA, USA: Prometheus Books.

Positive Money (2015), ‘Survey confirms: People have no idea about how money is created’ http://positivemoney.org/2015/09/survey-confirms-people-have-no-idea-about-how-money-is-created/

Pruzan, P. (2016), Research Methodology: The Aims, Practices and Ethics of Science, Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016

Rajan, R., Zingales, L. (1998), ‘Financial dependence and growth’. American Economic Review 88 (3), 559–586

RBA (2003), ‘Housing equity withdrawal’. Reserve Bank of Australia, February 2003

Reinhart, C.M., and K.S. Rogoff (2013), ‘Financial and sovereign debt crises: Some lessons learned and those forgotten’, IMF Working Paper WP/13/266

Reinold, K. (2011), ‘Housing equity withdrawal since the financial crisis’. Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin 2011 Q2

Rioja, F., Valev, N. (2004a), ‘Does one size fit all? Are examination of the finance and growth relationship’. Journal of Development Economics 74 (2), 429–447.

Rioja, F., Valev, N. (2004b) ‘Finance and the sources of growth at various stages of economic development’. Economic Inquiry 42 (1), 127–140.

Rule, G. (2015), ‘Understanding the central bank balance sheet’. CCBS Hanbook No. 32, Bank of England

Ryan-Collins, J.J. (2016), ‘Credit creation, monetary policy and the macroeconomy: Three empirical studies’. Thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. University of Southampton, February 2016

Ryan-Collins, J.J., R.A. Werner, and J. Castle (2016), ‘A half-century diversion of monetary policy? An empirical horse-race to identify the UK variable most likely to deliver the desired nominal GDP growth rate’. Int. Fin.Markets, Inst. And Money 43 (2016) 158–176

Sbordone, A.M., A. Tambalotti, K. Rao and K. Walsh (2010) ‘Policy Analysis Using DSGE Models: An Introduction.’ Economic Policy Review 16, 2 (2010): 23-43

Seyoum, B. (2010), Export-Import Theory, Practices, and Procedures, 2nd ed., Routledge

Shaikh, A. (2016), Capitalism: Competition, Conflict, Crises, Oxford University Press 2016

Shen, C.H., Lee, C.C., 2006. ‘Same financial development yet different economic growth – why?’ Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 38 (7), 1907–1944

Soskice, D. (2008), ‘Macroeconomics and Varieties of Capitalism’. In: B. Hancké, M. Rhodes and M. Thatcher (2008), Beyond Varieties of Capitalism: Conflict, Contradictions, and Complementarities in the European Economy, Oxford University Press

Stevens, G. (2008), ‘The Australian Economy: Then and Now’, [Reserve Bank of Australia] Governor Address to the Inaugural Faculty of Economics and Business Alumni Dinner, The University of Sydney.

Stiglitz, J. E., & Greenwald, B. (2003). Towards a New Paradigm in Monetary Economics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Sutherland, D., and P. Hoeller (2012), ‘Debt and macroeconomic stability: An overview of the literature and some empirics’, OECD Economic Department Working Papers No. 1006

Teplin, A.M. (2001), ‘The US flow of funds account and their uses’. Federal Reserve Bulletin, July 2001

Tucker, P. (2007), ‘Money and credit: Banking and the macroeconomy’. Speech by Mr Paul Tucker, Executive Director and Member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England, at the Monetary Policy and the Markets Conference, London, 13 December 2007.

Turner, A. (2011), speech: ‘Credit Creation and Social Optimality’, Sept 2011

Turner, A. (2013), ‘Debt, money and mephistopheles: How do we get out of this mess?. Cass Business School, 6th February 2013

Turner, A. (2014a), ‘Escaping the debt addiction: Monetary and macro-prudential policy in the post crisis world’, Centre for Financial Studies

Turner, A. (2014b), ‘Wealth, debt, inequality and low interest rates: Four big trends and some implications’

Turner, A. (2015a), ‘Endogenous Money Creation and Its Implications for Central Banking and Monetary Policy After the Crisis’, INET/SDRF Seminar

Turner, A. (2015b), ‘The case for monetary finance: An essentially political issue’, Paper presented at the 16th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference Hosted by the International Monetary Fund Washington, DC─November 5–6, 2015

UN (2003), National Accounts: A Practical Introduction, United Nations, New York, 2003

UN (2009), System of National Accounts 2008, United Nations

Voutsinas, K., and Werner, R. A. (2010). New evidence on the effectiveness of ‘quantitative easing’ and the accountability of the central bank in Japan. Working paper presented at the 15th Annual Meeting of the Annual International Conference on Macroeconomic Analysis and International Finance (ICMAIF 2011), University of Crete, Rethymnon, 27 May 2011; 8th Infiniti 2010 Conference on International Finance, Trinity College, Dublin, 14–15 June 2010; the 27th Symposium in Money Banking and Finance, Université Montesquieu-Bordeaux IV, 17–18 June 2010, and the MMF 2010 Annual Conference at the Cyprus University of Technology, Limassol.

Voutsinas, K., & Werner, R. A. (2011a). ‘Credit supply and corporate capital structure: Evidence from Japan’. International Review of Financial Analysis, 20, 320–334.

Voutsinas, K., & Werner, R. A. (2011b). ‘Testing the effectiveness of QE: Evidence from Japan’. CBFSD discussion paper no. 2-2011 Centre for Banking, Finance and Sustainable Development, University of Southampton

Walsh, C. E. (2003). Monetary theory and policy (2nd ed.). Cambridge, MA: MIT

White, W. (2002), ‘Changing views on how best to conduct monetary policy: the last fifty years’, Speech at the Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai, India, 14 December 2001 (updated for presentation in October 2002), Bank for International Settlements

Werner, R.A. (1992). ‘Towards a quantity theory of disaggregated credit and international capital flows’. Paper presented at the Royal Economic Society Annual Conference, York, April 1993, and at the 5th Annual PACAP Conference on Pacific-Asian Capital Markets in Kuala Lumpur, June 1993.

Werner, R.A. (1996), ‘Nichigin manipulation’. Ronso Toyo KeizaiTokyo: Toyo Keizai Shinpo Sha Part I: July, pp. 64–73; Part II: September, pp. 130–9; Part III: November, pp. 190–5

Werner, R.A. (1997), ‘Towards a new monetary paradigm: A quantity theorem of disaggregated credit, with evidence from Japan’, Kredit und Kapital, Duncker and Humblot, Berlin, vol. 30, no. 2, July, pp. 276-309.

Werner, R.A. (1998), Minkan ginkou kara no kariire de, keikitaisaku wo okonaeba ‘issekinichou’, Shuukan Economist, 14 July, Mainichi Shinbunsha, Tokyo

Werner, R.A. (1999),‘Soundness of Financial Systems: Bank restructuring and its impact on the economy’, Paper presented at the International Conference on Central Banking Policies, held on 14-15 May 1999, Macao Cultural Centre, Macao.

Werner, R.A. (2000a). ‘Indian macroeconomic management: At the crossroads between government and markets’. In Ghon S. Rhee (Ed.), Rising to the challenge in Asia: A study of financial markets, vol. 5, IndiaManila: Asian Development Bank.

Werner, R.A. (2000b). ‘Macroeconomic management in Thailand: The policy-induced crisis.’ In Ghon S. Rhee (Ed.), Rising to the challenge in Asia: A study of financial markets, vol. 11, ThailandManila: Asian Development Bank

Werner, R.A. (2005). New paradigm inmacroeconomics: Solving the riddle of Japanese macroeconomic performance. England: Palgrave Macmillan

Werner, R.A. (2003a). Princes of the yen: Japan’s central bankers and the transformation of the economy. Armonk, New York: M. E. Sharpe

Werner, R.A. (2003b). ‘Fukeiki ga owaranai hontōno riyū’ (central banking and structural change). Tokyo: Soshisha (in Japanese)

Werner, R.A. (2012), ‘Towards a new research programme on ‘Banking and the Economy’ — Implications of the Quantity Theory of Credit for the prevention and resolution of banking and debt crises’, International Review of Financial Analysis 25 (2012) 1–17

Werner, R.A. (2014), ‘Enhanced Debt Management: Solving the eurozone crisis by linking debt management with fiscal and monetary policy’. Journal of International Money and Finance 49 (2014) 443-469

Werner, R.A. (2015), ‘A lost century in economics: Three theories of banking and the conclusive evidence’. International Review of Financial Analysis (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2015.08.014

Williams, J. (2013), ‘A Defense of Moderation in Monetary Policy’, Journal of Macroeconomics 38 (December), pp. 137–50

Woodford, M. (2003). Interest and prices: Foundations of a theory of monetary

Zhu (2011), ‘Credit and business cycles: Some stylised facts’, Bank of International Settlements, October 2011