Un semplice modello univariato per la previsione a breve termine dell'inflazione italiana

Rapacciuolo, Ciro (2003): Un semplice modello univariato per la previsione a breve termine dell'inflazione italiana. Published in: CSC Working Paper No. n. 36 - 2003 (June 2003)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to build a tool for performing forecasting exercises, allowing to obtain a reliable estimate of Italian consumer price inflation. To reach this goal we estimate a simple three-equation model for the short term forecasting of twelve-month percentage variations of the Italian consumer price index. The starting point of the model is the decomposition of the general index in a main component, the so-called core inflation, capturing longer term tendencies and two additional volatile components, those of unprocessed food and energy prices. The idea is that it is exactly core inflation which is possible to explain and forecast with a set of basic economic variables acting as leading indicators.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: A simple model for the short term forecasting of Italian inflation
• Language: Italian
• Keywords: Inflazione : Previsioni e simulazioni : Modelli di serie storiche : Costruzione e stima di modelli econometrici
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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