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Granger Causality and the Factors underlying the Role of Younger Generations in Economic, Social and Political Changes in Arab Countries

Driouchi, Ahmed and Harkat, Tahar (2017): Granger Causality and the Factors underlying the Role of Younger Generations in Economic, Social and Political Changes in Arab Countries.

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Abstract

Abstract This paper examines the causality between social, technological, and political variables with macroeconomic variables in 19 Arab countries: Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, Palestine, and Yemen. It uses the Granger causality test to determine causal relationships using data between years 1962 and 2015. Empirical findings reveal unique causality profile for each of the Arab countries. Results also suggest the most important variables in the determination of the economic growth in Arab economies, separately. Variables related to the demography of the new generation, ICTs and use of social media appear to be playing important causal roles, in the sense of Granger tests. This implies that economic, future social and political decisions need to account for these findings and that policies need to be geared towards for further inclusion of the aspirations and expectations of the youth.

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