Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Discerning Granger-causal chain between oil prices, exchange rates and inflation rates: Evidence from Turkey

Citak, Yusuf Ensar and Masih, Mansur (2017): Discerning Granger-causal chain between oil prices, exchange rates and inflation rates: Evidence from Turkey.

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Abstract

The purpose of this study is to investigate the Granger-causal relationship between oil prices, exchange rates and inflation rates using Turkey as a case study. Revealing this relationship will give us a roadmap to cure fragile Turkish economy. Standard time-series approaches are used to investigate this relation. Our empirical findings tend to indicate that there is a long run relationship between these variables and that the CPI appears to be the variable leading exchange rate and oil prices. The results are plausible and have strong policy implications.

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