Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Prévision du coefficient de la réserve obligatoire de la Banque centrale du Congo.

Pinshi, Christian and Mukendi, Christian and Ndombe, Patrick (2015): Prévision du coefficient de la réserve obligatoire de la Banque centrale du Congo.

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Abstract

The economists provide forecasts in connection with future economic facts by using statistical data to conduct these forecasts. The goal of this study is to provide an academic paper for the universities in the analysis of forecasting. We analyzed and estimated the coefficient of the reserve requirement in foreign currency to envisage with horizon October 2014 until December 2014. We chose two methods: the first method is that of the exponential smoothing of Holt and Winters, since the series comprised seasonal effect and the trend. The second method is that of the linear exponential smoothing of Brown, after having deseasonalized the series, there was not seasonal effect and there remained only the trend. Both of method predicted a weak increasing variation of the coefficient of the reserve requirement. This small rise is in particular due to the process of fight against dollarization. By comparing both method we retained Holt and Winters because the error of forecasting (difference between realization and forecasting) of the method of Holt and Winters is very minimal.

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