Volatility forecasting: intra-day vs. inter-day models

Angelidis, Timotheos and Degiannakis, Stavros (2008): Volatility forecasting: intra-day vs. inter-day models. Published in: Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions and Money No. 18 (2008): pp. 449-465.

Abstract

Volatility prediction is the key variable in forecasting the prices of options, value-at-risk and, in general, the risk that investors face. By estimating not only inter-day volatility models that capture the main characteristics of asset returns, but also intra-day models, we were able to investigate their forecasting performance for three European equity indices. A consistent relation is shown between the examined models and the specific purpose of volatility forecasts. Although researchers cannot apply one model for all forecasting purposes, evidence in favor of models that are based on inter-day datasets when their criteria based on daily frequency, such as value-at-risk and forecasts of option prices, are provided.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Arfimax; Arch; Option pricing; Value-at-risk; Volatility forecasting
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C52 - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G15 - International Financial Markets

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