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Business Cycle Synchronisation in EU: A time-varying approach

Degiannakis, Stavros and Duffy, David and Filis, George (2014): Business Cycle Synchronisation in EU: A time-varying approach. Published in: Scottish Journal of Political Economy , Vol. 4, No. 61 (2014): pp. 348-370.

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This paper investigates the time-varying correlation between the EU12-wide business cycle and the initial EU12 member-countries based on Scalar-BEKK and multivariate Riskmetrics model frameworks for the period 1980-2012. The paper provides evidence that changes in the business cycle synchronisation correspond to major economic events that have taken place at a European level. In the main, business cycle synchronisation until 2007 had moved in a direction positive for the operation of a single currency, suggesting that the common monetary policy was less costly in terms of lost flexibility at the national level. However, as a result of the Great Recession of 2007 and the subsequent Eurozone Crisis a number of periphery countries, most notably Greece, have experienced desynchronisation of their business cycles with the EU12-wide cycle. Nevertheless, for most countries, any questions regarding the optimality and sustainability of the common currency area in Europe should not be attributed to a lack of cyclical synchronisation.

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