Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Türkiye’de Uygulanan Orta Vadeli Programın Ödemeler Dengesi Tahminleri Doğrultusunda Performansının Analizi

Aras, Osman Nuri and Erdoğan, Eren and Kök, Rukiye (2014): Türkiye’de Uygulanan Orta Vadeli Programın Ödemeler Dengesi Tahminleri Doğrultusunda Performansının Analizi. Published in: Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar , Vol. 595, No. 51 (2014): pp. 7-24.

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Abstract

Many developed and developing countries, who want to fulfill their social responsibilities covering investment spending that requires long-term, are passed to the multi-year budgeting practices instead of the classic one-year budget execution. In this respect, Turkey has passed multi-year budgeting implementation in 2006. Multi-year budgeting method, which is called “Medium Term Expenditure System” in the World Bank studies, is being implemented in the framework of the Medium Term Programme (MTP) in Turkey. Macro economic objectives of MTP include the balance of payments targets as well as growth, employment, public finance and general level of prices. It is estimated in the three-year horizon about Exports, Imports, Trade Balance, Current Account Balance/GDP, and Foreign Trade Volume/GDP towards the balance of payments targets. In this study, the success performance in forecasting and targets of the MTP was analyzed according to the balance of payments targets. In this study, the following conclusion was reached: In Turkey, the level of achievement of the MTP’s estimates is behind a great deal of EU countries according to the size of the balance of payments.

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