Institution, investissements et croissance dans l’UEMOA: une approche panel VAR

RAMDE, Fousseni (2015): Institution, investissements et croissance dans l’UEMOA: une approche panel VAR.

Abstract

The objective of this work was to assess the effects of governance on the dynamics of private investment, public and economic growth in WAEMU between 2002-2012. From a PanelVAR, the econometric results of the different models show that socio-political instability, corruption and regulation of economic activity have been constraints for investment and economic growth. On the other hand, they show that political instability reduces the externalities of public investment on private investment in the Union.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Institution, investments and growth in WAEMU: a panel VAR approach
• Language: French
• Keywords: Keywords: Investments, Growth, Institution, WAEMU, PanelVAR
• Subjects: H - Public Economics > H5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies > H50 - General; K - Law and Economics > K0 - General > K00 - General; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity > O40 - General

References

Référence bibliographique Abessolo, Y., (2003). «Instabilité politique et performances économiques: une évaluation du cas du Tchad». Université de Yaoundé II, Cameroun .Cahiers de recherche non publiés.

Acemoglu, D et Robinson, J., (2012) « Why Nations Fail » Crown Business.

Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S., et Robinson, J.A., (2001). « The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: an Empirical Investigation ». The American EconomicReview, vol. 91, n°5, pp1369- 1401. Africa Progress Panel., (2012). « Emploi, Justice, Equité: les opportunités à saisir en période de boulversements économiques, politiques et sociaux ». Rapport 2012 sur les progrès en Afrique.

Aidt, T. S., (2003). « Economic analysis of corruption: A survey ». the Economic Journal, Vol. 113, No. 491, pp. F632-F652.

Aisen, A. et Veiga, F. J., (2011). « How Does Political Instability Affect Economic Growth ?». IMF, Working Paper.

Akouwerabou, B. D., et Bako, P., (2013). «Marchés Publics et Petites et Moyennes Entreprises au Burkina Faso : Quelle Gouvernance ? ». Rapport de Recherche du FR-CIEA N°56/13.

Alesina, A. et Perotti, R., (1994). « The Political Economy of Growth: A Critical Survey of the Literature ». The World Bank Economic Review, 8, 351–71.

Alesina, A., et Perotti, R., (1996). « Income Distribution, Political Instability and Investment ». European Economic Review 40, pp. 1203-28.

Alesina, A., Özler, S., Roubini, N. et Swagel, P., (1996). «Political Instability and Economic Growth ». Journal of EconomicGrowth, 1, 189–211.

Ali Aga, L., (2014). « Qualité institutionnelle, corruption et croissance économique». Universitéd’Orléans.

Anyanwu, J., (2011). « Determinants of foreign direct investment inflows to africa, 1980-2007 ». African Development Bank Group, Paper series N° 136.

Arbatli, E., (2011). « Economic policies and FDI inflows to emerging market economies ». IMF Working Paper 11/192 Washington : International Monetary Fund.

Arellano, M. et Bond, S., (1991). « Some tests of Specification for Panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an Application to Employment Equations ». Review of EconomicStudies, 58, 277-297.

Arndt, C., et Oman, C., (2006). « Les indicateurs de gouvernance: Usages et abus». Centre de développement de l’OCDE, Paris.

Arndt, C., et Oman, C., (2010). « La mesure de la gouvernance, ». Cahiers de politique économique du Centre de Développement de l'OCDE 39.

Barro, R. J. et Lee, J. W., (1996). « Institutions and Growth, an Introductory Essay ». Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 145-48.

Barro, R. J., (1996). « Democracy and Growth ». Journal of Economic Growth 1, pp. 1-28.

Barro, R.J., (1997). « Determinants of Economic Growth. A Cross–Country Empirical Study ». MIT Press, Cambridge.

BCEAO (2013). « Annuairestatistique ». www.bceao.int.

BCEAO (2013). «Évolution des investissements directs étrangers dans les pays de l’UEMOA au cours de la période 2000-2011». www.bceao.int

Bean, C. R., (1998). « The Interaction of Aggregate Demand Policies and Labour Market Reform ». Swedish Economic Policy Review 5.

Beetsma, R. etGiuliadori, M., (2011). « The effects of government purchase shocks: Review and estimates for the EU ». Economic Journal, 121, F4-F32.

Blanchard, O., et Simon, J., (2001). « The long and large decline in U.S. output volatility ». Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1:2001.

Borner, S., Bodmer, F. et Kobler, M., (2004). « Le rôle des facteurs politiques dans la croissance économique ». OCDE, Centre de Développement de l’Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques.

Boutbtane, E., Coulibaly, D., et Rault, C., (2010). « Immigration, growth and unemploy- ment: Panel VAR evidence from OECD countries». Manuscript.

Brunetti, A., (1997). « Political variables in cross-country growth analysis ». Journal of Economic Surveys, vol 11, no 2, pp 163-190.

Campos, N. et Karanasos, M., (2007). « Growth, Volatility and Political Instability: Non Linear Time-Series Evidence for Argentina, 1896-2000 ». William Davidson Institute Working Paper Number 891.

Campos, N. et Nugent, J., (2002). « Who is Afraid of Political Instability? ». Journal of Development Economics 67, 157-172

Canova F et M Ciccarelli (2013) « Panel Vector autoregressive Models a Survey » Working Paper series N° 1507.

Canova, F. et Pina, J., (2005). « Monetary Policy Misspecification in VAR models ». inCavallo, E., et Daude, C., (2008). « Publics investment in developing countries: A blessing or a curse ? ». Inter-American Development Bank Research Department Working Paper 648.

Carstensen, K., Hulsewig, O., etWollmershauser, T., (2009). « Monetary policy transmission and house prices: European cross-country evidence». CESifo Working Paper N° 2750.

Chari, V. V., Kehoe, P. et McGrattan, E., (2008). « Are structural VAR with Long Run restrictions useful for developing Business Cycle Theory ». Journal of Monetary Economics, 55,1337-1352.

Cheung, S., (1998). «The Curse of Democracy as an Instrument of Reform in Collapsed Communist Economies ». Contemporary Economic Policy, vol 41, pp 247-249.

Clague, C., Philip, K., Stephen, K., et Mancur, O., (1996). « Property and Contract Rights in Autocracies and Democracies ». Journal of Economic Growth, l(2),243-76.

Clark, G., (2007). «A farewell to alms ». A Brief Economic History of the World. Princeton andOxford: Princeton University Press.

Collier, P., (1999). « On the Economic Consequences of Civil War ». Oxford Economic Papers,51, pp. 168-183. Cooley, T. et Dwyer, M., (1998). « Business Cycle Analysis without much Theory: À Look at Structural VARs ». Journal of Econometrics, 83, 57-88.

Dabla-Norris E., Honda J., Lahreche A. et Verdier G., (2010). « FDI Flows to Low-Income Countries: Global Drivers and Growth Implications ». IMF Working Paper 10/132 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

Delavallade, C., (2006). «Corruption and Distribution of Public Spending in DevelopingCountries ». Journal of Economics and Finance, 30 (2). 222-239.

Devereux, M. et Wen, J., (1996). « Political Uncertainty, Capital Taxation and Growth ». mimeo, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada.

Doing Business., (2013). « Smarter Regulations for Small and Medium-Size Entreprises». The Worlld Bank and International Finance Corporation

Durham, J.B., (1999). « Economic Growth and Political Regimes ». Journal of Economic Growth, 4, 81–111.

Easterly, W., (1991). « The Macroeconomics of the Public Sector Deficit: The Case of Colombia». WPS N° 626, World Bank, Country Economics Department, Washington, D.C.

Easterly, W., et Ross L., (1997). «Africa's Growth Tragedy: Policies and Ethnic Divisions ». The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol 112(4), pp 1203-50, November.

Engerman, S. L. et Sokoloff, K. L., (2000). « History Lessons: Institutions, Factor Endowments, and Paths of Development in the New World ».Journal of Economic Perspectives, Volume 14, N° 3, page 217-232.

Fisman, R., et Svensson, J., (2005). «Are Corruption and Taxation Really Harmful to Growth? Firm Level Evidence ». Journal of Development Economics.

Fosu, A.K., (1992). « Political instability and economic growth: evidence from sub- Saharan Africa ». Economic Development and Cultural Change 40 4, pp. 829–841.

Glaeser E L., La Porta R., Lopez-de-Silanes F. et Shleifer A., (2004): « Do Institutions Cause Growth? », Journal of Economic Growth, vol 9(3), pp 271-303.

Goldsmith, A.A., (1987). « Does Political Stability Hinder Economic Development? Mancur Olson's Theory and the Third World ». Comparative Politics, Vol. 19, No. 4 pp 471-480.

Gouenet, M. R., (2011). « Instabilité Socio-Politique et Niveau de l’Investissement Privé: Une évaluation empirique du cas du cameroun ». Investment Climate and Business Environment Research Fund, Report N° 14/11. www.trustafrica.org/icbe.

Gupta, D., (1990). «The Economics of Political Violence». New York, Praeger.

Haggard, S., Macintyre, A., et Tiede, L., (2007). «The Rule of Law and Economic Development ». The Annual Review of Political Science, December, 16:7, pp.205-234.

Haque, M.E. et Kneller, R., (2015). « Why does public investment fail to raise economic growth ? The role of corruption». Manchester School, forthcoming.

Holtz-Eakin, D., Newey, W. K. et Rosen, H. S., (1988). «Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data». Econometrica, 56, 1371-95.

Huntington, S. P., (1968). « Political Order in Changing Societies ». New Haven: Yale University Press.

Huntington, S. P., (1991). «The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century ». Journal of Democracy - Volume 2, Number 2, pp12-34.

Hurlin, C. et Mignon, V., (2005). « Une Synthèse des Tests de Racine Unitaire en sur Données de Panel ». Economie et Prévision. 169-171, pp.251-295.

Hurlin, C. et Mignon, V., (2007). « Une Synthèse des Tests de Cointégration sur Données de Panel ». EconomieetPrévision, vol.180-181, pp. 241- 265.

Jong-a-Pin, R., (2009). « On the measurement of political instability and its impact on economic growth ». European Journal of Political Economy 25, 15–29.

Kauffman, D., Kraay, A. et Mastruzzi, M., (2008). « Governance Matters Vii: Agregate and Individual Governance Indicators, 1996-2007». World Bank Policy Research Department, Working Paper, No. 4654.

Lane, P. et Benetrix, A., (2010). « International differences in Fiscal policy during the global crisis ».CEPR working paper 8009.

Lavallée, E., et Roubaud, F., (2011). « Corruption and informal enterprise performance: West African evidence ». Multi-Donor Trust Fund, Labor Markets, Job Creation and Economic Growth.

Leff, N. H., (1964). «Economic development through bureaucratic corruption ». American Behavioral Scientist, vol. 8 (3), pp. 8-14.

Leys, C., (1965). «What is the Problem about Corruption ». The Journal of Modern African Studies Vol. 3, no. 2: 215-230.

Love, I., et Zicchino, L., (2006). « Financial development and dynamic invetsmentbehaviour: Evidence from a Panel VAR ». The Quartely Review of Economic and Finance, 46, 190-210.

Lui,F.T., (1985).«An Equilibrium Queuing Model of Bribery». Journal of Political Economy 93, no. 4: 760-781.

Martin, B., et Rowthorn, R., (2004). « Will stability last? » UBS research paper, March.

Mauro, P., (1995). «Corruption and Growth». Quarterly Journal of Economics 110, no. 3:681-712.

McArthur, J. et Teal, F., (2002). « Corruption and Firm Performance in Africa». Centre for the Study of African Economies Department of Economics University of Oxford.

Miller, N. et Peng, L. et Sklarz, M., (2011). « House Price and Economic Growth». Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 42(4), 522-541.

Miner, J., (1998). « Democracy and Growth: Alternative Approaches », Journal of Economic.

Moin, U. A., (2011). «Role of political stability on economic performance: The case of Bangladesh». Master thesis in applied econometrics, Department of economics, Stockholm University.

Munoz, R.,(2009). « Political Instability and Economic Growth: the case of Venezuela (1983 -2000), Political Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Outcomes: Theoretical and Empirical Essays ».University of Essex, PhD Thesis.

North, D. C., (1990). « Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance». Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

North, D. C., (2005). « Understanding the process of economic change ».Princeton UniversityPress, New Jersey.

Office des Nations-Unies contre la Drogue et le Crime., (2013). «Criminalité transnationale organisée en Afrique de l’Ouest : Une Evaluation des Menaces». ONUDC.

Pesaran, H. et Smith, R., (1995). « Estimating Long Run Relationship from Dynamic Heteroegeneous Panels ». Journal of Econometrics, 68, 79-113.

Projet de suivi de la gouvernance en Afrique de l’Ouest., (2011). « État de la gouvernance en Afrique de l’Ouest : Cote d’Ivoire ». CODESRIA, Osiwa.

Rock, M. T., et Bonnett, H., (2004). «The Comparative Politics of Corruption: Accounting for the East Asian Paradox in Empirical Studies of Corruption, Growth and Investment». World Development, 32(6), pp. 999-1017.

Seyf, A., (2001). «Corruption and Development: A Study of Conflict». Development in Practice, 11(5). 597-605.

Shleifer, A., et Vishny, R., (1993)., « Corruption». Quarterly journal of economics, 108(3). 599-617.

Sims, C. A., (1980). «Macroeconomics and Reality». Econometrica, 48, 1–48.

Stock, J., et Watson, M., (2002). « Has the business cycle changed and why? » NBER Macroeconomics Annual.

Tello, W P; Peschiera, J. A. et Rondan, N. R., (2005). «Sources of economic instability: are institutional factors the most important?». Banco Central de ReservadelPeru.

Tenou, K., (1999). «Les déterminants de la croissance à long terme dans les pays de l’UEMOA». BCEAO, Etudes et recherches, Notes d’Information et Statistiques, n°493.

Uneke, O., (2010).«Corruption in Africa South of the Sahara: Bureaucratic Facilitator or Handicap to Development? ». The Journal of Pan African Studies, vol.3, no.6, March.

Wei, S-J. (2000). « Taxing is corruption on international investors ». Review of economics and statistics, 82(1). 1-11.

Younis, M, Lin, Y. S., etSelvarathinam, S., (2008). « Political Stability and Economic Growth in Asia ». American Journal of Applied Sciences 5 (3): 203-208.