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Two-child Policy, Gender Income and Fertility Choice In China

Liu, Tao-Xiong and Liu, Jun (2017): Two-child Policy, Gender Income and Fertility Choice In China.

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Abstract

We build up a three-period overlapping generation model to explore the effectiveness of fertility policy and the corresponding factors affecting the fertility choices in China. The results show that there is a significant U-shaped relationship between female income and the two-child fertility choice, and a significant positive relationship between male income and the two-child fertility choice, and the relationship between the price of other child care services and the two-child fertility choice is negatively correlated. The analysis of the effectiveness of the current universal two-child policy suggests that there exists a threshold of the fertility policy estimated to be between 1 and 2. Therefore, even if the two-child policy is further relaxed to a three child policy, it will exert little influence on fertility choice. Thus other forms of fertility policy should be combined to improve fertility rate.

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