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L’évolution des dépenses de santé au Maroc : une analyse des déterminants démographiques et macro-économiques

Y. TAMSAMANI, Yasser (2017): L’évolution des dépenses de santé au Maroc : une analyse des déterminants démographiques et macro-économiques.

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Morocco’s healthcare expenditures regime growth has been in decline since 2010. The average annual growth rate went from 7.9% over the period of 1996 to 2009 to 4.4% in the recent years. The objective of this paper is to identify the demographic and macroeconomic determinants that shape healthcare expenditures behavior in Morocco, and to evaluate their respective contributions to the shift observed in the trajectory of healthcare expenditures growth. On the one hand, results show that the combined demographic factors of population growth and demographic transition account for a 14% growth rate decline in healthcare expenditures. On the other hand, the evaluation of macroeconomic determinants based on econometric modeling, shows that the income elasticity of healthcare expenditures is less than a unit ranging from 0.5 to 0.8. It also yields a positive price semi-elasticity with an estimated value of 0.02, and a 0.01 (-0.01) sensitivity coefficient to the variation of the weight of public (versus private) funding in total healthcare expenditures. Therefore, as of 2010 the contributing factors to the slowing down in healthcare expenditures growth can be presented as follows: 45% is due to declining healthcare relative prices, 20 % is due to a shrinking share of public funding, and 11% is due to a decelerating economic growth. The estimated models’ residual contains the remainder (10%) shares of contributions.

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