Comparison between Static and Dynamic Forecast in Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average for Seasonally Adjusted Headline Consumer Price Index

Jackson, Emerson Abraham (2018): Comparison between Static and Dynamic Forecast in Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average for Seasonally Adjusted Headline Consumer Price Index.

Abstract

This empirical study has provided interpretive outcome from a univariate forecast using Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The HCPI_SA seasonally adjusted data for Sierra Leone shows a robust model outcome with three months ahead prediction based on the STATIC method result. Test results like Autocorrelation and also comparative values for MAPE and the Inverted Root values have indicated that the model is a good fit. Despite better choice of outcome from the STATIC result in comparison to DYNAMIC forecast, the conclusion a cautious means of advice when using results for policy outcomes and with comparative forecasts highly recommended a way forward in guiding policy makers’ decision.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: ARIMA, Forecast, Headline Consumer Price Index [HCPI], Sierra Leone
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C52 - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods

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