Ho, Sin-Yu (2018): Analysing the Sources of Growth in an Emerging Market Economy: The Thailand Experience.
Preview |
PDF
MPRA_paper_86337.pdf Download (635kB) | Preview |
Abstract
This paper investigates the sources of economic growth in Thailand during the period 1975 to 2014. The results show that, in the long run, human capital and inflation exert a positive and significant impact on output, while foreign direct investment and foreign aid have negative and significant impact on output. The results also show that, in the short run, physical capital, labour and human capital have a positive and significant impact on growth, while the initial level of human capital, government expenditure, the initial level of inflation, foreign direct investment and foreign aid have a negative and significant impact on growth. Based on these findings, we offer some policy implications.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Original Title: | Analysing the Sources of Growth in an Emerging Market Economy: The Thailand Experience |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | sources of growth; Thailand; ARDL bounds testing |
Subjects: | C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity > O47 - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth ; Aggregate Productivity ; Cross-Country Output Convergence O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O5 - Economywide Country Studies > O53 - Asia including Middle East |
Item ID: | 86337 |
Depositing User: | Ms Sin-Yu Ho |
Date Deposited: | 24 Apr 2018 17:17 |
Last Modified: | 28 Sep 2019 18:57 |
References: | Aghion, P and Saint-Paul, G. (1998). ‘Virtues of bad times interaction between productivity growth and economic fluctuations’, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol. 2 No. 3, pp.322-344. Ahmad, J and Harnhirun, S. (1996). ‘Cointegration and causality between exports and economic growth: evidence from the ASEAN countries’, The Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'Economique, Vol. 29, pp.S413-S416. Alfaro, L., Chanda, A., Kalemli-Ozcan, S. and Sayek, S. (2004). ‘FDI and economic growth: the role of local financial markets’, Journal of International Economics, Vol. 64 No.1, pp.89-112. Arestis, P. and Demetriades, P. (1997). ‘Financial development and economic growth: Assessing the evidence’, The Economic Journal, Vol. 107, pp.783-799. Asafu-Adjaye, J. (2000). ‘The relationship between energy consumption, energy prices and economic growth: time series evidence from Asian developing countries’, Energy Economics, Vol. 22 No. 6, pp.615-625. Asteriou, D. (2009). ‘Foreign aid and economic growth: New evidence from a panel data approach for five South Asian countries’, Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 31 No.1, pp.155 - 161. Balassa, B. (1978). ‘Exports and economic growth: further evidence’, Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 5 No. 2, pp.181–189 (June). Barro, R.J. (1991). ‘Economic growth in a cross section of countries’, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 106 No. 2, pp.407–443. Barro, R.J. (2003). ‘Determinants of economic growth in a panel of countries’, Annals of Economics and Finance, Vol. 4, pp.231-274. Barro, R.J. and Sala-i-Martin, X. (1995). Economic Growth. McGraw-Hill, New York. Barro, R.J. and Sala-i-Martin, X. (1997). ‘Technological diffusion, convergence and growth’, Journal of Economic Growth, Vol 2, pp.1–26. Beaudry, P. and Green, D.A. (2002). ‘Population growth, technological adoption, and economic outcomes in the information era’, Review of Economic Dynamics, Vol. 5 No.4, pp.749-774. Bende-Nabende, A., Ford, J. L., Santoso, B. and Sen, S. (2003). ‘The interaction between FDI, output and the spillover variables: co-integration and VAR analyses for APEC, 1965-1999’, Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 10 No. 3, pp.165-172. Benhabib, J. and Spiegel, M.M. (1994). ‘The role of human capital in economic development evidence from aggregate cross-country data’, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 34 No. 2, pp.143-173. Bergh, A. and Karlsson, M. (2010). ‘Government size and growth: Accounting for Economic Freedom and Globalization’, Public Choice, Vol. 142, pp.195-213. Blackburn, K. (1999). ‘Can Stabilisation Policy Reduce Long-Run Growth’, The Economic Journal, Vol. 109 No. 452, pp.67-77. Blomstrom, M., Lipsey, R. and Zejan, M. (1996). ‘Is fixed investment the key to economic growth, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 111 No.1, pp.269-76. Bodman, P. and Le, T. (2013). ‘Assessing the roles that absorptive capacity and economic distance play in the foreign direct investment-productivity growth nexus’, Applied Economics, Vol. 45 No. 8, pp.1027-1039. Bosworth, B. (2005). Economic growth in Thailand: The macroeconomic context. World Bank project on the investment climate, firm competitiveness, and growth in Thailand. http://www. brookings. edu/views/papers/bosworth/20060615. pdf. (Assessed 21 December 2016). Brahmasrene, T. and Jiranyakul, K. (2007). ‘The relationship between government expenditures and economic growth in Thailand’, Journal of Economics and Economic Education Research, Vol. 8 No.1, pp.93-102. Bruno, M., and Easterly, W. (1998). ‘Inflation cries and long-run growth’, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 41, pp.3-26. Burnside, C. and Dollar, D. (2000). ‘Aid, growth and policies’, American Economic Review, Vol. 90 No. 4, pp.847-868. Chen, B. and Feng, Y. (2000). ‘Determinants of economic growth in China: Private enterprise, education, and openness’, China Economic Review, Vol. 11 No. 1, pp.1-15. Chuenchoksan, Sra, and Don Nakornthab. (2008). Past, Present, and Prospects for Thailand’s Growth: A Labor Market Perspective. Working paper, Bangkok: Bank of Thailand. Clemens, M.A., Radelet, S. and Bhavnani, R.R. (2004). ‘Counting chickens when they hatch: The short term effect of aid on growth’, Center for Global Development Working Paper, 44. De Gregorio, J. (1993). ‘Inflation, taxation, and long-run growth’, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 31 No. 3, pp. 271-298. De Gregorio, J. (2006). Economic Growth in Latin America: From the Disappointment of the twentieth Century to the Challenges of the Twenty-first. Banco Central de Chile. Dollar, D. and Kraay, A. (2003). ‘Institutions, trade and growth’, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 50, pp.133–162. Dotsey, M. and Sarte, P.D. (2000). ‘Inflation uncertainty and growth in a cash-in-advance economy’, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 45 No. 3, pp.631-655. Easterly, W. and Rebelo, S. (1993). ‘Fiscal policy and economic growth’, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 32, pp.417-458. Elliott, G.R., Rothenberg, T.J. and Stock J.H. (1996). ‘Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root’, Econometrica, Vol. 64, pp.813-836. Eriṣ, M.N. and Ulaṣan, B. (2013). ‘Trade openness and economic growth: Bayesian model averaging estimate of cross-country growth regressions’, Economic Modelling, Vol. 33, pp.867-883. Feder, G. (1983). ‘On exports and economic growth’, Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 12 No. 1-2, pp.59-73. Fischer, S. (1993). ‘The role of macroeconomic factors in growth’, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 32 No. 3, pp.485-512. Fölster, S. and Henrekson, M. (2006). ‘Growth effects of government expenditure and taxation in rich countries, A reply’, European Economic Review, Vol. 50, pp.219-221. Grossman, G.M. and Helpman, E. (1990). ‘Comparative advantage and long-run growth’, American Economic Review, Vol. 80, pp.796–815. Grossman, G.M. and Helpman, E. (1991). ‘Quality ladders in the theory of growth’, The Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 58 No.1, pp.43-61. Hartwig, J. (2012). ‘Testing the growth effects of structural change’, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Vol. 23 No.1, pp.11-24. Herzer, D. and Klasen, S. (2008). ‘In search of FDI-led growth in developing countries: The way forward’, Economic Modelling, Vol. 25 No. 5, pp.793-810. Klobodu, E. K. M., and Adams, S. (2016). ‘Capital flows and economic growth in Ghana’, Journal of African Business, Vol.17 No.3, pp.291-307. Kourtellos, A., Tan, C.M. and Zhang, X. (2007). ‘Is the relationship between aid and economic growth nonlinear’, Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 29 No. 3, pp.515-540. Lathapipat, D. and Chucherd T. (2013). ‘Labour Market Functioning and Thailand’s Competitiveness’, BOT Symposium, Bank of Thailand and World Bank. Levine, R. and Zervos S. (1996). ‘Stock market development and long-run growth’, World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 10 No. 2, pp.323-340. Li, X. and Liu, X. (2005). ‘Foreign direct investment and economic growth: an increasingly endogenous relationship’, World development, Vol. 33 No.3, pp.393-407. Mankiw, G.N., Romer, D. and Weil, D.N. (1992). ‘A contribution to the empirics of economic growth’, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 107 No. 2, pp.407–437. Minoiu, C. and Reddy, S.G. (2010). ‘Development aid and economic growth: A positive long-run relation’, The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Vol. 50 No.1, pp.27-39. Mirestean, A. and Tsangarides, C.G. (2016). ‘Growth Determinants Revisited Using Limited‐Information Bayesian Model Averaging’, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 31 No.1, pp.106-132. Moral-Benito, E. (2012). ‘Determinants of economic growth: A Bayesian panel data approach’, Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.94 No.2, pp.566-579. Ng, S. and Perron, P. (2001). ‘Lag length selection and the construction of unit root tests with good size and power’, Econometrica, Vol. 69 No. 6, pp.1519-1554. Ongo Nkoa, B.E. (2014). ‘Impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth in CEMAC region: An analysis of transmission mechanisms’, International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Vol. 6 No. 4, pp.303-326. Penn World Table, version 9.0. (2016). [Online] www.ggdc.net/pwt (Accessed on 14 December 2016). Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y.C., and Smith, R. (2001). ‘Bound Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships’, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 16, pp.289-326. Phiri, A. (2018). ‘Nonlinear impact of inflation on economic growth in South Africa: a smooth transition regression analysis’, International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Vol. 10 No. 1, pp.1-17. Rajan, R.G. and Subramanian, A. (2011). ‘Aid, Dutch disease, and manufacturing growth’, Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 94 No.1, pp.106-118. Rajan, R.G. and Zingales, L. (2003). ‘The great reversals: the politics of financial development in the twentieth century’, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 69, pp.5–50. Rajan, R.G. and Zingales, L. (2008). ‘Financial dependence and growth’, American Economic Review, Vol. 88 No. 3, pp.559–586. Romer, P.M. (1990). ‘Endogenous technological change’, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 98 No. 5, pp.71–102. Sarel, M. (1996). ‘Nonlinear Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth’, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 43, pp.199-215. Sjöholm, F. (1999). ‘Productivity growth in Indonesia: the role of regional characteristics and direct foreign investment’, Economic Development and Cultural Change, Vol. 47 No. 3, pp.559-584. Squalli, J. and Wilson, K. (2011). ‘A new measure of trade openness’, The World Economy, Vol. 20, pp.1745–1770. Takumah, W. and Iyke, B.N. (2017). ‘The links between economic growth and tax revenue in Ghana: an empirical investigation’, International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Vol. 9 No.1, pp.34-55. Teixeira, A.A. and Queirós, A.S. (2016). ‘Economic growth, human capital and structural change: A dynamic panel data analysis’, Research Policy, Vol. 45 No. 8, pp.1636-1648. Temple, J. and Wößmann, L. (2006). ‘Dualism and cross-country growth regressions’, Journal of Economic Growth, Vol. 11 No. 3, pp.187-228. Torvik, R. (2001). ‘Learning by doing and the Dutch disease’, European Economic Review, Vol. 45 No. 2, pp.285-306. Wang, Y. and Yao, Y. (2003). ‘Sources of China's economic growth 1952–1999: incorporating human capital accumulation’, China Economic Review, Vol. 14 No. 1, pp.32-52. Van Wijnbergen, S. (1986). ‘Macroeconomic aspects of the effectiveness of foreign aid: On the two-gap model, home goods disequilibrium and real exchange rate misalignment’, Journal of International Economics, Vol. 21 No. 1-2, pp.123-136. World Bank. (2017). Overview of Thailand. World Bank, Washington, D.C. [Online] http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/thailand/overview (Accessed on 1 February 2016). WDI (World Development Indicators). (2016). World Bank, Washington, D.C. [Online] http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators (Accessed on 14 December 2016). World Economic Forum. (2015). Global Competitiveness Report, 2015-2016. [Online] http://reports.weforum.org/global-competitiveness-report-2015-2016/ (Accessed on 20 December 2016). Yilmazkuday, H. (2013). ‘Inflation Thresholds and Growth’, International Economic Journal, Vol. 27 No. 1, pp.1-10. Yoo, S.H. (2006). ‘The causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in the ASEAN countries’, Energy Policy, Vol. 34 No.18, pp.3573-3582. Zhang, K.H. (2001). ‘Does foreign direct investment promote economic growth’, Evidence from East Asia and Latin America’, Contemporary Economic Policy, Vol. 19 No. 2, pp.175-185. |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/86337 |